VCR – Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF Shares

ETF

Consumer Cyclical | Inception: 2004-01-26

Quick Stats

Trend Signal
$397.13
Last Close
Official EOD price – basis for all calculations
▲ Long
Swing Trend
Moving average structure confirms uptrend – bulls in control
+12.14%
Signal Edge
Moderate edge across 1 signals – signal performs above random, not exceptional
3.1
Trend Strength (ADX)
Weak / ranging – trend signals less reliable
Options Signals
6%
IV-Rank (52w)
Options are historically cheap – premium buying favored
61% / 39%
Call / Put Flow
Bullish positioning – call premium dominates options flow
Last Trendchange Signal
10.07.26
Date
Signal entry date
$395.75
Entry Price
Closing price at signal date
14d
Days Held
Trading days since signal
-1.06%
+10d
Return after 10 trading days
+0.41%
+20d
Return after 20 trading days
-0.83%
+30d
Return after 30 trading days
+60d
Not yet reached

Trend Overview

EMA21 Cross – Directional Shift Composite Score: +3 / 7

VCR has just crossed the 21-day EMA at $392.47, now trading above the line. Bulls have reclaimed a key reference. Whether this becomes a sustained move or a failed breakout depends on momentum confirming in the sessions ahead.

What to watch

The cross is a signal, not a confirmation. Watch for a successful retest of the EMA21 from above – that would be the higher-confidence entry.

Options Signal Highlight

Latest VCR Reports

Apr 28, 2026
Exchange Traded Funds - Signals VCR Trade Setup: 12.99% Edge with Clear Exit Rules
Apr 15, 2026

VCR Price Chart

Technical Trend Analysis

As of 21.08.2026  ·  Close: $397.13  ·  ATR14: $1.53

EMA21 Cross – Directional Shift Composite Score: +3 / 7

VCR has just crossed the 21-day EMA at $392.47, now trading above the line. Bulls have reclaimed a key reference. Whether this becomes a sustained move or a failed breakout depends on momentum confirming in the sessions ahead.

What to watch

The cross is a signal, not a confirmation. Watch for a successful retest of the EMA21 from above – that would be the higher-confidence entry.

Indicator Signal Detail
Swing Trend ▲ Long Primary directional bias
Momentum ▲ Up · 14d Strength: 0.09 – Fading
Trend Strength (ADX) 3.1 – Weak ADX38: 7.5
Volatility (HV30) 22.2% – Rising HV90: 19.9% | HV180: 19.5%
Vola Compression None Normal range
MA Structure Golden Cross ✓ Stack: Fully aligned – bullish stack
EMA21 Distance 1.64 ATR ↑ EMA21: $392.47
GD200 Extension 1.4 ATR – Normal GD20: 0.5 | GD50: 0.8 | GD100: 1.2
⚠️ Momentum Fading
Upward momentum has been running 14 days but strength is declining (0.09). The trend is intact but losing energy.
⚪ Trend Strength – ADX14: 3.1 (Weak)
Weak or ranging market. ADX38: 7.5. Trend-following signals carry lower reliability.
🔺 Volatility Rising
HV30: 22.2% | HV90: 19.9% | HV180: 19.5%. Short-term vol is running above its 90-day average. Wider stops and reduced size may be appropriate.
⭐ Golden Cross – Long-term Bullish
Golden Cross in place. GD50 $392.20 above GD200 $388.99 by 0.82%. Long-term structure is bullish. MA stack: Fully aligned – bullish stack.
⚡ EMA21 – Fresh Cross
Price has just crossed the 21-day EMA at $392.47, now trading above. Often marks a near-term directional shift.
📐 Key Price Levels & ATR Distance
GD20: $394.20 (0.5 ATR) | GD50: $392.20 (0.8 ATR) | GD100: $389.78 (1.2 ATR) | GD200: $388.99 (1.4 ATR). ATR14: $1.53.

Monthly Performance History

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total
2010 -3.29 4.77 6.66 5.52 -9.13 -8.58 7.41 -6.75 8.50 5.22 3.49 1.43 28.28
2011 -2.12 4.12 1.72 3.29 -0.24 2.11 -3.63 -5.60 -6.18 16.95 1.12 -0.42 1.01
2012 5.52 4.62 3.26 0.11 -6.30 4.81 -0.56 5.67 3.22 -0.84 1.41 -0.26 21.65
2013 3.83 0.14 4.38 3.84 4.01 0.42 4.66 -4.21 5.05 3.22 3.34 1.99 39.45
2014 -5.28 9.57 -1.67 -3.07 1.98 2.26 -2.93 4.70 -3.28 3.96 5.57 0.75 8.69
2015 -2.29 7.37 -1.12 0.10 0.16 0.20 2.84 -6.00 0.08 7.17 -1.03 -3.98 5.73
2016 -4.13 0.47 3.82 -0.50 -1.53 -1.45 3.93 -1.22 -0.79 -2.45 6.29 -0.33 6.87
2017 3.30 1.99 0.93 2.91 0.62 -1.70 1.71 -1.92 0.62 1.32 5.00 1.99 20.67
2018 6.92 -2.74 -1.55 T
4.95
2.07 1.84 1.48 5.67 -0.62 -10.09 0.09 T
-11.14
-4.77
2019 T
9.28
2.89 1.71 3.90 -7.02 T
8.33
0.43 -0.27 T
1.57
T
1.51
1.25 T
3.33
24.96
2020 0.02 -8.65 -20.48 T
28.04
12.09 3.66 7.96 12.55 -5.97 T
-4.39
13.01 4.09 43.52
2021 4.28 -1.79 T
1.49
5.33 -2.61 T
2.88
-0.14 T
1.61
-3.58 T
8.48
-0.78 1.84 25.40
2022 T
-11.71
-4.34 T
4.65
-11.59 -6.71 -10.48 T
16.00
-4.77 -9.05 1.86 T
3.42
-11.14 -37.10
2023 T
16.13
-4.09 3.26 -0.10 1.91 10.57 2.18 -1.00 T
-5.89
-5.20 T
10.05
5.14 39.84
2024 -3.11 T
5.86
0.11 -4.69 T
1.59
2.36 3.17 T
2.16
8.10 -1.64 11.12 -1.13 24.45
2025 T
5.07
-6.66 -6.89 T
-1.05
8.65 1.74 1.51 7.30 3.54 T
-0.81
-2.16 T
0.75
6.00
2026 1.93 -4.39 -5.46 T
8.75
1.88 0.53 T
-1.85
-0.63 1.40

T A T badge marks a Trendchange signal in that month. Hover for entry price.

Trendchange Signal History

The last 10 Trendchange signals for VCR:

Date Entry Price Days Held +10d +20d +30d +60d
10.07.26 $395.75 14d -1.06% +0.41% -0.83% +0%
06.07.26 $398.32 1d -0.59% +0% +0% +0%
14.04.26 $385.37 14d +1.69% +2.38% +2.92% +4.03%
02.12.25 $390.88 40d +2.6% +1.55% +3.77% -0.2%
24.10.25 $393.06 12d -1.36% -0.24% +0.5% +0%
29.04.25 $328.35 55d +7.93% +9.86% +9.92% +25.6%
29.01.25 $388.47 8d -0.41% -0.41% -0.41% -9.01%
21.08.24 $320.87 38d -1.63% +2.74% +4.59% +20.57%
08.05.24 $307.71 30d +0.24% -0.47% +0.68% +9.4%
08.02.24 $305.34 35d +2.06% +1.92% +4.14% +1.78%

Signal Statistics – Historical Edge

Calculated edge for VCR: 12.14%

Range N 10d 20d 30d 60d Signal
7-10% 1 +7.93% +9.86% +9.92% +25.6% Hold
5-7% 2 +6.33% +11.65% +12.08% +5.95% Close
3-5% 4 +4.32% +5.48% +8.3% +26.67% Hold
1-3% 8 +2.1% +1.73% +2.52% +2.96% Close
0-1% 5 +0.44% +0.83% +1.65% +4.95% Hold
-1-0% 8 -0.46% +0.03% +0.78% +4.53% Neg
-3-1% 7 -1.86% -0.02% +0.72% +4.32% Neg
-7-5% 2 -5.76% -5.76% -5.24% -6.83% Neg
Exit Rules: Stoploss: -10% | Close if below 0% after 10 days

Signal data as of August 21, 2026

LOW ALERT ● Neutral Strength: 2.5

Options Metrics

IV-Rank (52w)
6%
Bottom 20% of the past 52 weeks – options are historically cheap. Conditions favor premium buyers (Long Call, Long Put).
Call / Put Flow
61% / 39%
More than 60% of options premium is flowing into calls. This indicates net bullish positioning by market participants.
GEX (Mio.)
2,996.5
Positive GEX: market makers are long gamma. They buy dips and sell rallies, which suppresses volatility and keeps price in a range.
Max Pain
$205.00 · 48.4%
Max Pain is the price at which the most options contracts expire worthless. As expiration approaches, price often gravitates toward this level due to dealer hedging flows.
Spot Price
$397.13
Last traded price at signal calculation time

Gamma Exposure Timeline

Key GEX levels, Max Pain, and unusual activity across weekly and monthly expirations, plotted around the current spot price.

VCR GEX timeline showing put/call gamma pins, max pain and flip strike

Key GEX levels, Max Pain, Anchor, Ceiling and unusual activity across 14-30 DTE, plotted around the current spot price.

VCR GEX timeline showing put/call gamma pins, max pain and flip strike

Put and call pins mark strikes where dealer gamma exposure concentrates. The GEX flip strike is where dealer hedging shifts from stabilizing (positive gamma) to amplifying (negative gamma) price moves. Max Pain is the strike where the most options expire worthless. Dashed markers flag unusual options activity. Learn how to use these signals in our options strategy guides →

Strategy Setups – You Decide

Based on current options data, 2 setups match the current conditions. Each strategy has different risk/reward characteristics – the final decision is always yours.

Profit Loss $0 Stock Price →
Why this fits today

IV-Rank at 6% – options are historically cheap. Bullish flow (61% calls) supports buying upside premium at below-average cost.

Advantages
Unlimited upside potential with maximum loss capped at the premium paid
Low IV-Rank means you are buying at historically cheap levels
Benefits from both a price increase and a subsequent rise in implied volatility
Risks
Time decay (theta) works against the position every day
Requires a meaningful move to overcome the premium paid
Full premium is lost if the stock stays below the strike at expiration
FAQ: Long Call
What is a Long Call?

A Long Call gives the buyer the right to purchase the underlying at the strike price before expiration. The maximum loss is limited to the premium paid. It expresses a bullish directional view and profits if the underlying rises significantly above the strike price.

Why buy calls when IV-Rank is low?

Low IV-Rank means implied volatility is historically cheap - options are priced below their typical levels. Buying premium when it is cheap reduces the hurdle rate for profitability. If IV subsequently rises, the option gains value from both the price move and the increase in implied volatility.

What is the breakeven on a Long Call?

The breakeven equals the strike price plus the premium paid. For example, a call with a $100 strike bought for $3 breaks even at $103. Above that level, the position profits dollar-for-dollar with the stock. Below the strike at expiration, the full premium is lost.

Profit Loss $0 Stock Price →
Why this fits today

IV-Rank at 6% – buying both sides is cost-effective. A subsequent vol expansion or large move benefits both legs simultaneously.

Advantages
Profits from any large directional move without needing to pick a side
Buying when IV is historically cheap reduces the breakeven hurdle
An unexpected vol expansion benefits both the call and put simultaneously
Risks
Requires a significant move to recover the combined premium paid
Theta decay accelerates as expiration approaches
If the stock stays flat, both legs expire worthless
FAQ: Long Straddle
What is a Long Straddle?

A Long Straddle buys a call and a put at the same strike and expiration. It profits from a large move in either direction. When IV is low, the premium cost is reduced, making the breakeven easier to reach on a directional move.

Why buy a straddle when IV is low?

Low IV means you are buying the options cheaply. If IV subsequently rises - due to an event or a directional move - both legs can gain value simultaneously, giving you a double benefit. The key is entering before the vol expansion.

All setups above are personal trade journal observations derived from options flow data. This is not financial advice. The decision to trade, and which strategy to use, is entirely yours.

View full options flow data and historical signals on the Options Flow Analysis Overview →

About Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF Shares

The fund employs an indexing investment approach designed to track the performance of the index, an index made up of stocks of large, mid-size, and small U.S. companies within the consumer discretionary sector, as classified under the GICS. The Advisor attempts to replicate the target index by seeking to invest all of its assets in the stocks that make up the index, in order to hold each stock in approximately the same proportion as its weighting in the index. It is non-diversified.

Fund Overview

MetricValue
Assets under Management$6.68 B
Expense Ratio0.09%
Dividend Yield0.67%
Portfolio Turnover6%
YTD Return-242.28%
3-Year Return15.36%
5-Year Return5.06%

Sector Allocation

Sector Weight
Consumer Discretionary 97.4%
Financials 0.8%

Top 10 Holdings

Symbol Company Weight
AMZN AMAZON.COM INC 23.36%
TSLA TESLA INC 16.56%
HD THE HOME DEPOT INC 5.29%
MCD MCDONALD'S CORP 3.67%
TJX TJX COMPANIES INC 2.73%
LOW LOWE'S COMPANIES INC 2.25%
BKNG BOOKING HOLDINGS INC 2.08%
SBUX STARBUCKS CORP 1.7%
RCL ROYAL CARIBBEAN GROUP 1.24%
ORLY O'REILLY AUTOMOTIVE INC 1.23%

Frequently Asked Questions – Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF Shares (VCR)

Disclaimer: All trade history on this page reflects the author's personal trading activity only. This is not financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. See our full Disclaimer.