What is USO and what does it track?

United States Oil Fund, LP (USO) is an exchange-traded fund focused on the Commodities Focused sector, managing $2.64B in assets. The fund has been trading since 2006-04-10. USO invests primarily in futures contracts for light, sweet crude oil, other types of crude oil, diesel-heating oil, gasoline, natural gas, and other petroleum-based fuels.

How large is USO and what does it cost to hold?

USO currently manages $2.64B in assets. The annual expense ratio (TER) is 0.70%, deducted directly from fund assets. Portfolio turnover stands at 0%, reflecting how frequently holdings are replaced within a year. Lower expense ratios compound favorably over time – a 0.08% TER on a 10-year holding period adds up to meaningfully less drag than a 0.5% fund.

Does USO pay dividends or distributions?

USO currently distributes a yield of 0.00%. ETF distributions are typically passed through from dividends and interest generated by the underlying holdings. The actual payout frequency depends on the fund structure – most sector ETFs distribute quarterly.

What is USO's historical performance?

Reported performance for USO: year-to-date 82.91%, 3-year cumulative 25.26%, 5-year cumulative 27.58%. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Returns reflect price changes only and may differ from total return figures that include distributions.

What is the current trend signal for USO?

As of the most recent session, USO closed at $143.91. The swing trend is positive with ADX at 16.4 (weak trend strength). Momentum is bearish and has been running for 8 trading days. A Golden Cross is in place All data is updated once per trading day after the US market closes.

When was the last Trendchange signal for USO?

The most recent Trendchange signal for USO fired on 22.07.26 at $131.68. The position has been open for 8 trading days. Performance after 10 days: -12.07%. The system's historical edge across 69 tracked signals is +14.95%. Trendchange signals are based on proprietary moving average crossover logic applied to end-of-day price data.

USO – United States Oil Fund, LP

ETF

Commodities Focused | Inception: 2006-04-10

Quick Stats

Trend Signal

$143.91

Last Close

Official EOD price – basis for all calculations

▲ Long

Swing Trend

Moving average structure confirms uptrend – bulls in control

+14.95%

Signal Edge

Moderate edge across 1 signals – signal performs above random, not exceptional

16.4

Trend Strength (ADX)

Weak / ranging – trend signals less reliable

Options Signals

12%

IV-Rank (52w)

Options are historically cheap – premium buying favored

59% / 41%

Call / Put Flow

Neutral flow – call and put activity roughly balanced

Last Trendchange Signal

22.07.26

Date

Signal entry date

$131.68

Entry Price

Closing price at signal date

Days Held

Trading days since signal

-12.07%

+10d

Return after 10 trading days

-12.07%

+20d

Return after 20 trading days

-12.07%

+30d

Return after 30 trading days

-12.07%

+60d

Return after 60 trading days

Trend Overview

Neutral – No Clear Edge Composite Score: 0 / 7

USO is in a neutral phase with no clear directional edge. Trend and momentum indicators are roughly balanced between positive and negative readings.

What to watch

No actionable setup is present. The market is not offering a clean edge in either direction. Patience is the discipline here.

Options Signal Highlight

HIGH Strength 15.8 Long Straddle 📖 View full options analysis →

USO Price Chart

Technical Trend Analysis

As of 07.10.2026 · Close: $143.91 · ATR14: $3.67

Neutral – No Clear Edge Composite Score: 0 / 7

USO is in a neutral phase with no clear directional edge. Trend and momentum indicators are roughly balanced between positive and negative readings.

What to watch

No actionable setup is present. The market is not offering a clean edge in either direction. Patience is the discipline here.

Indicator	Signal	Detail
Swing Trend	▲ Long	Primary directional bias
Momentum	▼ Down · -8d	Strength: -0.87 – Fading
Trend Strength (ADX)	16.4 – Weak	ADX38: 25.2
Volatility (HV30)	43.0% – Calm	HV90: 49.6% \| HV180: 56.1%
Vola Compression	None	Normal range
MA Structure	Golden Cross ✓	Stack: Fully aligned – bullish stack
EMA21 Distance	~0 ATR – Near line	EMA21: $144.05
GD200 Extension	6.5 ATR – Extended	GD20: -1.2 \| GD50: 1.1 \| GD100: 2.6

🟡 Downside Momentum Easing

Downward momentum has run -8 days but strength is decreasing (-0.87). The move may be exhausting.

⚪ Trend Strength – ADX14: 16.4 (Weak)

Weak or ranging market. ADX38: 25.2. Trend-following signals carry lower reliability.

🔻 Volatility Calm

HV30: 43.0% | HV90: 49.6% | HV180: 56.1%. Short-term vol is below its 90-day average. Calmer conditions favour tighter setups.

⭐ Golden Cross – Long-term Bullish

Golden Cross in place. GD50 $138.38 above GD200 $116.33 by 18.96%. Long-term structure is bullish. MA stack: Fully aligned – bullish stack.

🎯 EMA21 – Bounce Confirmed

Price touched the EMA21 at $144.05 and is pulling away with rising distance. Classic continuation setup.

📏 Extended Move

6.5 ATR from the 200-day SMA. The trend may be maturing. Disciplined stop management becomes increasingly important.

📐 Key Price Levels & ATR Distance

GD20: $150.44 (-1.2 ATR) | GD50: $138.38 (1.1 ATR) | GD100: $131.49 (2.6 ATR) | GD200: $116.33 (6.5 ATR). ATR14: $3.67.

Monthly Performance History

Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Total
2010	-11.50	5.72	5.06	0.22	-17.90	2.35	7.51	-12.50	5.74	-1.29	0.64	4.84	-3.15
2011	-1.13	2.94	5.24	4.59	-9.86	-5.77	0.73	-7.23	-11.55	20.17	10.17	-1.30	-2.41
2012	-4.71	9.47	-6.04	-0.87	-18.78	1.27	3.98	8.20	-3.91	-7.21	1.56	2.36	-15.92
2013	4.32	-6.48	6.14	-4.38	0.68	3.08	7.76	0.55	-4.93	-5.43	-1.96	4.87	4.44
2014	1.67	6.43	-2.48	1.37	4.20	3.60	-6.54	-1.19	-1.09	-10.31	-14.05	-22.64	-40.52
2015	-10.41	-2.79	-8.08	16.67	-0.44	-2.36	-18.38	5.23	-0.88	1.58	-12.34	-15.06	-44.70
2016	-12.11	-0.22	6.01	21.11	7.42	-3.02	-17.15	10.10	8.65	-5.14	3.41	3.44	6.74
2017	-1.05	-0.26	-6.67	-2.94	-1.87	-4.14	6.86	-4.56	7.86	7.05	5.23	2.91	4.98
2018	7.54	-6.57	5.99	8.32	-0.44	T 13.66	-4.55	T 4.40	6.45	-13.54	-20.28	-14.29	-19.97
2019	T 15.23	2.75	7.20	3.67	-16.04	9.55	T -1.95	1.33	T 1.07	0.98	T -0.60	9.77	30.05
2020	-15.38	-9.91	-57.56	-45.43	37.22	T 7.02	2.54	4.23	-7.58	T -8.22	T 17.94	7.81	-67.79
2021	8.65	14.37	-0.17	T 3.42	3.27	7.66	0.08	-2.32	T 9.66	7.30	-16.72	T 15.56	67.88
2022	13.95	7.92	3.20	4.03	9.05	-6.07	-4.43	T -2.69	-7.99	T 5.36	-3.95	-0.48	27.87
2023	T 2.48	-0.22	T -2.39	T -3.94	-8.90	1.60	T 15.43	2.88	5.12	T -5.50	-6.17	-3.74	-1.46
2024	T 7.83	6.21	5.03	-1.62	-1.46	T 10.80	-4.66	-2.56	-1.65	T 1.35	-0.57	T 6.35	14.87
2025	1.42	-3.34	T 5.47	-17.54	T 4.08	5.12	T 7.66	-3.38	T -3.92	-0.79	-2.30	-2.67	-10.10
2026	T 15.31	8.79	45.95	18.53	-9.60	-21.45	T 25.08	9.48	3.30	-4.07			108.69

T A T badge marks a Trendchange signal in that month. Hover for entry price.

USO - Trendchange Chart

Trendchange Signal History

The last 10 Trendchange signals for USO:

Date	Entry Price	Days Held	+10d	+20d	+30d	+60d
22.07.26	$131.68	8d	-12.07%	-12.07%	-12.07%	-12.07%
12.01.26	$71.65	39d	+2.55%	+8.89%	+12.71%	+75.63%
25.09.25	$76.99	8d	-5%	-5%	-5%	-5%
29.07.25	$79.80	6d	-4.62%	-4.62%	-4.62%	+0%
28.05.25	$67.89	39d	+5.46%	+7.98%	+8.4%	+8.4%
31.03.25	$77.33	6d	-6.57%	-6.57%	-6.57%	+0%
13.12.24	$74.21	27d	-0.49%	+10.05%	+6.27%	+6.27%
04.10.24	$76.35	8d	-5.17%	-5.17%	-5.17%	-5.17%
18.06.24	$78.67	20d	+3.1%	+1.84%	+1.84%	+1.84%
23.01.24	$69.66	16d	-3.09%	-3.09%	-3.09%	-3.09%

Signal Statistics - Historical Edge

Calculated edge for USO: 14.95%

Range	N	10d	20d	30d	60d	Signal
10-15%	1	+11.6%	+9.8%	+9.12%	+9.12%	Close
7-10%	1	+8.37%	+7.63%	+8.77%	+8.77%	Close
5-7%	8	+5.92%	+5.92%	+6.06%	+6.25%	Close
3-5%	14	+3.65%	+4.42%	+5.65%	+5.5%	Close
1-3%	8	+2.02%	+5.31%	+7.06%	+19.62%	Hold
0-1%	6	+0.47%	-0.8%	-0.31%	-0.8%	Close
-1-0%	6	-0.45%	+1.17%	+0.09%	+0.86%	Neg
-3-1%	5	-2.12%	-0.94%	-0.62%	-1.15%	Neg
-5-3%	12	-3.79%	-3.21%	-2.72%	-1.47%	Neg
-7-5%	5	-5.44%	-4.43%	-4.43%	-2.03%	Neg
-10-7%	2	-8.58%	-8.58%	-8.58%	+0%	Neg
<-10%	1	-12.07%	-12.07%	-12.07%	-12.07%	Neg

Exit Rules: Stoploss: -10% | Close if below 1% after 10 days

Signal data as of October 7, 2026

HIGH ALERT ● Neutral Strength: 15.8

Options Metrics

IV-Rank (52w)

12%

Bottom 20% of the past 52 weeks – options are historically cheap. Conditions favor premium buyers (Long Call, Long Put).

Call / Put Flow

59% / 41%

Call and put premium are roughly balanced. No clear directional bias from options flow.

GEX (Mio.)

4,737,391.2

Positive GEX: market makers are long gamma. They buy dips and sell rallies, which suppresses volatility and keeps price in a range.

GEX Flip Strike

$117.00 · 18.7%

The GEX flip strike is the price level where dealer gamma exposure shifts from positive to negative. A break through this level often accelerates the move.

Max Pain

$144.00 · 0.1%

Max Pain is the price at which the most options contracts expire worthless. As expiration approaches, price often gravitates toward this level due to dealer hedging flows.

Spot Price

$143.91

Last traded price at signal calculation time

Gamma Exposure Timeline

Key GEX levels, Max Pain, and unusual activity across weekly and monthly expirations, plotted around the current spot price.

USO GEX timeline showing put/call gamma pins, max pain and flip strike

Key GEX levels, Max Pain, Anchor, Ceiling and unusual activity across 14-30 DTE, plotted around the current spot price.

Put and call pins mark strikes where dealer gamma exposure concentrates. The GEX flip strike is where dealer hedging shifts from stabilizing (positive gamma) to amplifying (negative gamma) price moves. Max Pain is the strike where the most options expire worthless. Dashed markers flag unusual options activity. Learn how to use these signals in our options strategy guides →

Strategy Setups – You Decide

Based on current options data, one setup stands out. Each strategy has different risk/reward characteristics – the final decision is always yours.

Setup 1 of 1 Long Straddle Full guide →

Why this fits today

IV-Rank at 12% – buying both sides is cost-effective. A subsequent vol expansion or large move benefits both legs simultaneously.

Advantages

✓ Profits from any large directional move without needing to pick a side

✓ Buying when IV is historically cheap reduces the breakeven hurdle

✓ An unexpected vol expansion benefits both the call and put simultaneously

Risks

✕ Requires a significant move to recover the combined premium paid

✕ Theta decay accelerates as expiration approaches

✕ If the stock stays flat, both legs expire worthless

▶ FAQ: Long Straddle

What is a Long Straddle?

A Long Straddle buys a call and a put at the same strike and expiration. It profits from a large move in either direction. When IV is low, the premium cost is reduced, making the breakeven easier to reach on a directional move.

Why buy a straddle when IV is low?

Low IV means you are buying the options cheaply. If IV subsequently rises - due to an event or a directional move - both legs can gain value simultaneously, giving you a double benefit. The key is entering before the vol expansion.

All setups above are personal trade journal observations derived from options flow data. This is not financial advice. The decision to trade, and which strategy to use, is entirely yours.

View full options flow data and historical signals on the Options Flow Analysis Overview →

About United States Oil Fund, LP

USO invests primarily in futures contracts for light, sweet crude oil, other types of crude oil, diesel-heating oil, gasoline, natural gas, and other petroleum-based fuels.

Fund Overview

Metric	Value
Assets under Management	$2.64 B
Expense Ratio	0.70%
Dividend Yield	0.00%
Portfolio Turnover	0%
YTD Return	82.91%
3-Year Return	25.26%
5-Year Return	27.58%

Frequently Asked Questions – United States Oil Fund, LP (USO)

Disclaimer: All trade history on this page reflects the author's personal trading activity only. This is not financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. See our full Disclaimer.