USO – United States Oil Fund, LP

ETF

Commodities Focused | Inception: 2006-04-10

Quick Stats

Trend Signal
$134.64
Last Close
Official EOD price – basis for all calculations
▲ Long
Swing Trend
Moving average structure confirms uptrend – bulls in control
+42.34%
Signal Edge
Strong positive edge across 3 signals – signal has a clear statistical advantage
42.8
Trend Strength (ADX)
Strong trend – directional signals reliable
Options Signals
9%
IV-Rank (52w)
Options are historically cheap – premium buying favored
81% / 19%
Call / Put Flow
Bullish positioning – call premium dominates options flow
Last Trendchange Signal
22.07.26
Date
Signal entry date
$131.68
Entry Price
Closing price at signal date
6d
Days Held
Trading days since signal
-12.07%
+10d
Return after 10 trading days
-0.77%
+20d
Return after 20 trading days
+2.25%
+30d
Return after 30 trading days
–
+60d
Not yet reached

Trend Overview

Mixed Signals – Caution Composite Score: +2 / 7

USO shows mixed signals. Some trend indicators are positive, others are neutral or deteriorating. The picture is not clear enough to lean heavily in either direction with conviction.

What to watch

This is not an environment that rewards aggressive positioning. Reduced exposure or cash is a valid stance.

Options Signal Highlight

Latest USO Reports

Aug 21, 2026
Options Flow Analysis — Daily Reports Why 68 Bullish Signals Are Hiding a Contrarian Trap
Aug 20, 2026

USO Price Chart

Technical Trend Analysis

As of 21.08.2026  ·  Close: $134.64  ·  ATR14: $3.23

Mixed Signals – Caution Composite Score: +2 / 7

USO shows mixed signals. Some trend indicators are positive, others are neutral or deteriorating. The picture is not clear enough to lean heavily in either direction with conviction.

What to watch

This is not an environment that rewards aggressive positioning. Reduced exposure or cash is a valid stance.

Indicator Signal Detail
Swing Trend ▲ Long Primary directional bias
Momentum ▲ Up · 3d Strength: 0.62 – Rising
Trend Strength (ADX) 42.8 – Strong ADX38: 22.5
Volatility (HV30) 56.4% – Rising HV90: 55.2% | HV180: 54.2%
Vola Compression None Normal range
MA Structure Golden Cross ✓ Stack: Mostly aligned (2/3)
EMA21 Distance 2.40 ATR ↓ EMA21: $125.22
GD200 Extension 9.0 ATR – Extended GD20: 2.2 | GD50: 3.7 | GD100: 1.7
🚀 Momentum Accelerating
Upward momentum active for 3 days and still gaining strength (current: 0.62). Trend is building, not fading.
💪 Trend Strength – ADX14: 42.8 (Strong)
A strong and well-defined trend. ADX38: 22.5. Trend-following has clear edge here.
🔺 Volatility Rising
HV30: 56.4% | HV90: 55.2% | HV180: 54.2%. Short-term vol is running above its 90-day average. Wider stops and reduced size may be appropriate.
⭐ Golden Cross – Long-term Bullish
Golden Cross in place. GD50 $120.16 above GD200 $104.32 by 15.18%. Long-term structure is bullish. MA stack: Mostly aligned (2/3).
📉 EMA21 – Gap Narrowing
Price is 2.40 ATR from the EMA21 ($125.22) but the distance is shrinking.
📏 Extended Move
9.0 ATR from the 200-day SMA. The trend may be maturing. Disciplined stop management becomes increasingly important.
📐 Key Price Levels & ATR Distance
GD20: $125.72 (2.2 ATR) | GD50: $120.16 (3.7 ATR) | GD100: $127.81 (1.7 ATR) | GD200: $104.32 (9.0 ATR). ATR14: $3.23.

Monthly Performance History

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total
2010 -11.50 5.72 5.06 0.22 -17.90 2.35 7.51 -12.50 5.74 -1.29 0.64 4.84 -3.15
2011 -1.13 2.94 5.24 4.59 -9.86 -5.77 0.73 -7.23 -11.55 20.17 10.17 -1.30 -2.41
2012 -4.71 9.47 -6.04 -0.87 -18.78 1.27 3.98 8.20 -3.91 -7.21 1.56 2.36 -15.92
2013 4.32 -6.48 6.14 -4.38 0.68 3.08 7.76 0.55 -4.93 -5.43 -1.96 4.87 4.44
2014 1.67 6.43 -2.48 1.37 4.20 3.60 -6.54 -1.19 -1.09 -10.31 -14.05 -22.64 -40.52
2015 -10.41 -2.79 -8.08 16.67 -0.44 -2.36 -18.38 5.23 -0.88 1.58 -12.34 -15.06 -44.70
2016 -12.11 -0.22 6.01 21.11 7.42 -3.02 -17.15 10.10 8.65 -5.14 3.41 3.44 6.74
2017 -1.05 -0.26 -6.67 -2.94 -1.87 -4.14 6.86 -4.56 7.86 7.05 5.23 2.91 4.98
2018 7.54 -6.57 5.99 8.32 -0.44 T
13.66 		-4.55 T
4.40 		6.45 -13.54 -20.28 -14.29 -19.97
2019 T
15.23 		2.75 7.20 3.67 -16.04 9.55 T
-1.95 		1.33 T
1.07 		0.98 T
-0.60 		9.77 30.05
2020 -15.38 -9.91 -57.56 -45.43 37.22 T
7.02 		2.54 4.23 -7.58 T
-8.22 		T
17.94 		7.81 -67.79
2021 8.65 14.37 -0.17 T
3.42 		3.27 7.66 0.08 -2.32 T
9.66 		7.30 -16.72 T
15.56 		67.88
2022 13.95 7.92 3.20 4.03 9.05 -6.07 -4.43 T
-2.69 		-7.99 T
5.36 		-3.95 -0.48 27.87
2023 T
2.48 		-0.22 T
-2.39 		T
-3.94 		-8.90 1.60 T
15.43 		2.88 5.12 T
-5.50 		-6.17 -3.74 -1.46
2024 T
7.83 		6.21 5.03 -1.62 -1.46 T
10.80 		-4.66 -2.56 -1.65 T
1.35 		-0.57 T
6.35 		14.87
2025 1.42 -3.34 T
5.47 		-17.54 T
4.08 		5.12 T
7.66 		-3.38 T
-3.92 		-0.79 -2.30 -2.67 -10.10
2026 T
15.31 		8.79 45.95 18.53 -9.60 -21.45 T
25.08 		10.25 95.24

T A T badge marks a Trendchange signal in that month. Hover for entry price.

Trendchange Signal History

The last 10 Trendchange signals for USO:

Date Entry Price Days Held +10d +20d +30d +60d
22.07.26 $131.68 6d -12.07% -0.77% +2.25% +0%
12.01.26 $71.65 42d +2.55% +8.89% +12.71% +87.91%
25.09.25 $76.99 14d -5% -5% -5% +17.16%
29.07.25 $79.80 6d -4.62% -4.62% -4.62% +0%
28.05.25 $67.89 39d +5.46% +7.98% +11.05% +12.11%
31.03.25 $77.33 6d -6.57% -6.57% -6.57% +0%
13.12.24 $74.21 27d -0.49% +10.05% +6.27% -2.64%
04.10.24 $76.35 11d -5.17% -2.78% -2.78% +10.46%
18.06.24 $78.67 20d +3.1% +2.48% +1.56% -5.64%
23.01.24 $69.66 36d -3.09% +3.96% +5.44% +14.7%

Signal Statistics – Historical Edge

Calculated edge for USO: 42.34%

Range N 10d 20d 30d 60d Signal
5-7% 3 +5.75% +8.61% +9.14% +11.12% Hold
3-5% 9 +3.57% +3.16% +5.47% +10.46% Hold
1-3% 3 +2.46% +9.69% +13.36% +64.81% Hold
0-1% 4 +0.49% -0.02% +2.27% -20.88% Close
-1-0% 3 -0.29% +3.88% +3.7% +9.95% Neg
-3-1% 3 -2.03% +1.94% +0.75% +0.79% Neg
-5-3% 8 -4.06% -2.26% -1.33% +1.59% Neg
-7-5% 4 -5.53% -4.93% -4.93% +6.91% Neg
-10-7% 1 -8.32% -5.84% -5.84% +0% Neg
<-10% 1 -12.07% -0.77% +2.25% +0% Neg
Exit Rules: Stoploss: -10% | Close if below 1% after 10 days

Signal data as of August 21, 2026

HIGH ALERT ● Neutral Strength: 21.3

Options Metrics

IV-Rank (52w)
9%
Bottom 20% of the past 52 weeks – options are historically cheap. Conditions favor premium buyers (Long Call, Long Put).
Call / Put Flow
81% / 19%
More than 60% of options premium is flowing into calls. This indicates net bullish positioning by market participants.
GEX (Mio.)
2,543,983.0
Positive GEX: market makers are long gamma. They buy dips and sell rallies, which suppresses volatility and keeps price in a range.
GEX Flip Strike
$131.00 · 2.7%
The GEX flip strike is the price level where dealer gamma exposure shifts from positive to negative. A break through this level often accelerates the move.
Max Pain
$130.00 · 3.4%
Max Pain is the price at which the most options contracts expire worthless. As expiration approaches, price often gravitates toward this level due to dealer hedging flows.
Spot Price
$134.64
Last traded price at signal calculation time

Gamma Exposure Timeline

Key GEX levels, Max Pain, and unusual activity across weekly and monthly expirations, plotted around the current spot price.

USO GEX timeline showing put/call gamma pins, max pain and flip strike

Key GEX levels, Max Pain, Anchor, Ceiling and unusual activity across 14-30 DTE, plotted around the current spot price.

USO GEX timeline showing put/call gamma pins, max pain and flip strike

Put and call pins mark strikes where dealer gamma exposure concentrates. The GEX flip strike is where dealer hedging shifts from stabilizing (positive gamma) to amplifying (negative gamma) price moves. Max Pain is the strike where the most options expire worthless. Dashed markers flag unusual options activity. Learn how to use these signals in our options strategy guides →

Strategy Setups – You Decide

Based on current options data, 2 setups match the current conditions. Each strategy has different risk/reward characteristics – the final decision is always yours.

Profit Loss $0 Stock Price →
Why this fits today

IV-Rank at 9% – options are historically cheap. Bullish flow (81% calls) supports buying upside premium at below-average cost.

Advantages
✓ Unlimited upside potential with maximum loss capped at the premium paid
✓ Low IV-Rank means you are buying at historically cheap levels
✓ Benefits from both a price increase and a subsequent rise in implied volatility
Risks
✕ Time decay (theta) works against the position every day
✕ Requires a meaningful move to overcome the premium paid
✕ Full premium is lost if the stock stays below the strike at expiration
▶ FAQ: Long Call
What is a Long Call?

A Long Call gives the buyer the right to purchase the underlying at the strike price before expiration. The maximum loss is limited to the premium paid. It expresses a bullish directional view and profits if the underlying rises significantly above the strike price.

Why buy calls when IV-Rank is low?

Low IV-Rank means implied volatility is historically cheap - options are priced below their typical levels. Buying premium when it is cheap reduces the hurdle rate for profitability. If IV subsequently rises, the option gains value from both the price move and the increase in implied volatility.

What is the breakeven on a Long Call?

The breakeven equals the strike price plus the premium paid. For example, a call with a $100 strike bought for $3 breaks even at $103. Above that level, the position profits dollar-for-dollar with the stock. Below the strike at expiration, the full premium is lost.

Profit Loss $0 Stock Price →
Why this fits today

IV-Rank at 9% – buying both sides is cost-effective. A subsequent vol expansion or large move benefits both legs simultaneously.

Advantages
✓ Profits from any large directional move without needing to pick a side
✓ Buying when IV is historically cheap reduces the breakeven hurdle
✓ An unexpected vol expansion benefits both the call and put simultaneously
Risks
✕ Requires a significant move to recover the combined premium paid
✕ Theta decay accelerates as expiration approaches
✕ If the stock stays flat, both legs expire worthless
▶ FAQ: Long Straddle
What is a Long Straddle?

A Long Straddle buys a call and a put at the same strike and expiration. It profits from a large move in either direction. When IV is low, the premium cost is reduced, making the breakeven easier to reach on a directional move.

Why buy a straddle when IV is low?

Low IV means you are buying the options cheaply. If IV subsequently rises - due to an event or a directional move - both legs can gain value simultaneously, giving you a double benefit. The key is entering before the vol expansion.

All setups above are personal trade journal observations derived from options flow data. This is not financial advice. The decision to trade, and which strategy to use, is entirely yours.

View full options flow data and historical signals on the Options Flow Analysis Overview →

About United States Oil Fund, LP

USO invests primarily in futures contracts for light, sweet crude oil, other types of crude oil, diesel-heating oil, gasoline, natural gas, and other petroleum-based fuels.

Fund Overview

MetricValue
Assets under Management$2.64 B
Expense Ratio0.70%
Dividend Yield0.00%
Portfolio Turnover0%
YTD Return8,290.74%
3-Year Return25.26%
5-Year Return27.58%

Frequently Asked Questions – United States Oil Fund, LP (USO)

Disclaimer: All trade history on this page reflects the author's personal trading activity only. This is not financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. See our full Disclaimer.