TSLA – Tesla, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical | Auto Manufacturers | Website

Quick Stats

Trend Signal
$362.86
Last Close
Official EOD price – basis for all calculations
▼ Short
Swing Trend
Moving average structure confirms downtrend – bears in control
+73.82%
Signal Edge
Strong positive edge across 3 signals – signal has a clear statistical advantage
57.9
Trend Strength (ADX)
Strong trend – directional signals reliable
Options Signals
6%
IV-Rank (52w)
Options are historically cheap – premium buying favored
78% / 22%
Call / Put Flow
Bullish positioning – call premium dominates options flow
Last Trendchange Signal
21.04.26
Date
Signal entry date
$386.42
Entry Price
Closing price at signal date
31d
Days Held
Trading days since signal
+1.58%
+10d
Return after 10 trading days
+6.1%
+20d
Return after 20 trading days
+9.66%
+30d
Return after 30 trading days
+9.65%
+60d
Return after 60 trading days

Trend Overview

Trend Building – Constructive Composite Score: +3 / 7

TSLA is trending in a positive direction but the setup is not yet fully developed. Momentum has been running for 7 days and is still gaining strength – the trend is building. The overall configuration is constructive but not yet at peak alignment.

What to watch

The trend deserves respect but not blind confidence. Position sizing should reflect the incomplete alignment. A further improvement in momentum strength and ADX would raise conviction.

Options Signal Highlight

Latest TSLA Reports

Aug 12, 2026
Options Flow Analysis — Daily Reports The Nvidia Wall and the Tech Gamma Collapse – July 21, 2026
Jul 22, 2026
Jul 21, 2026

TSLA Price Chart

Technical Trend Analysis

As of 21.08.2026  ·  Close: $362.86  ·  ATR14: $3.82

Trend Building – Constructive Composite Score: +3 / 7

TSLA is trending in a positive direction but the setup is not yet fully developed. Momentum has been running for 7 days and is still gaining strength – the trend is building. The overall configuration is constructive but not yet at peak alignment.

What to watch

The trend deserves respect but not blind confidence. Position sizing should reflect the incomplete alignment. A further improvement in momentum strength and ADX would raise conviction.

Indicator Signal Detail
Swing Trend ▼ Short Primary directional bias
Momentum ▲ Up · 7d Strength: 1.55 – Rising
Trend Strength (ADX) 57.9 – Strong ADX38: 16.6
Volatility (HV30) 59.0% – Rising HV90: 52.3% | HV180: 46.0%
Vola Compression None Normal range
MA Structure Death Cross ✗ Stack: No MAs aligned
EMA21 Distance 5.33 ATR ↑ EMA21: $334.88
GD200 Extension -2.6 ATR – Normal GD20: 2.8 | GD50: -0.2 | GD100: -1.3
🚀 Momentum Accelerating
Upward momentum active for 7 days and still gaining strength (current: 1.55). Trend is building, not fading.
💪 Trend Strength – ADX14: 57.9 (Strong)
A strong and well-defined trend. ADX38: 16.6. Trend-following has clear edge here.
🔺 Volatility Rising
HV30: 59.0% | HV90: 52.3% | HV180: 46.0%. Short-term vol is running above its 90-day average. Wider stops and reduced size may be appropriate.
💀 Death Cross – Long-term Bearish
Death Cross in place. GD50 $365.86 below GD200 $403.32. Long-term structure remains bearish. MA stack: No MAs aligned.
📈 EMA21 – Trend Accelerating
Price is pulling away from the EMA21 ($334.88) with 5.33 ATR distance and growing.
📐 Key Price Levels & ATR Distance
GD20: $328.14 (2.8 ATR) | GD50: $365.86 (-0.2 ATR) | GD100: $381.55 (-1.3 ATR) | GD200: $403.32 (-2.6 ATR). ATR14: $3.82.

Monthly Performance History

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total
2010 -0.25 -9.20 -6.88 -0.19 6.02 65.02 -22.48 11.46
2011 -9.47 -0.08 15.91 3.53 9.80 2.14 -2.93 -14.01 1.63 23.77 13.37 -12.39 7.29
2012 3.53 12.95 8.23 -9.43 -12.67 11.15 -9.80 8.65 4.05 -3.53 15.63 -2.17 20.62
2013 6.08 -9.06 9.35 22.90 83.48 15.95 14.59 24.68 14.46 -17.13 -21.51 21.15 325.43
2014 20.86 38.23 -16.81 -4.19 0.02 17.27 -6.85 15.62 -14.59 0.61 0.80 -3.99 48.17
2015 -7.16 -3.60 -4.34 20.50 10.96 7.54 -1.11 -4.20 4.09 -13.74 7.70 1.19 9.44
2016 -14.42 -2.54 23.30 1.33 -7.68 -3.32 8.45 -7.83 1.62 -7.47 -0.73 T
17.49
-4.35
2017 16.10 0.30 T
11.31
5.21 5.63 6.24 -8.27 T
11.37
-4.02 -2.93 -3.81 T
1.57
43.49
2018 10.54 -1.77 -19.58 16.41 T
-5.06
T
17.52
-11.02 T
0.27
-8.37 T
8.57
1.80 -7.17 3.83
2019 T
-1.00
2.46 -5.06 -17.46 -20.88 T
24.86
6.36 -3.52 T
7.05
28.70 5.31 24.92 34.89
2020 51.20 -14.36 -29.53 T
62.36
19.06 20.23 27.79 67.78 -9.69 -13.41 T
41.72
20.68 720.05
2021 8.74 -19.57 -7.03 T
7.21
-8.71 T
8.94
1.37 3.67 5.64 43.70 -5.28 T
-3.49
44.81
2022 -21.93 -6.53 T
24.67
-19.72 -16.02 -9.04 30.75 -7.29 -4.30 -6.13 -14.54 -36.73 -69.20
2023 T
60.24
13.40 T
2.31
-15.64 T
26.01
26.14 -4.43 -1.15 T
2.13
-20.17 T
16.74
4.04 129.86
2024 -24.61 6.89 -13.25 T
4.60
-1.06 T
12.25
10.58 -1.27 T
24.23
-3.17 38.63 13.09 62.56
2025 6.68 -23.64 -8.95 T
5.10
23.51 -7.30 T
2.51
T
10.32
35.03 -0.63 -8.16 T
4.55
18.57
2026 -1.75 -4.58 -7.83 T
0.10
11.51 1.13 -26.83 12.66 -17.17

T A T badge marks a Trendchange signal in that month. Hover for entry price.

Trendchange Signal History

The last 10 Trendchange signals for TSLA:

Date Entry Price Days Held +10d +20d +30d +60d
21.04.26 $386.42 31d +1.58% +6.1% +9.66% +9.65%
04.12.25 $454.53 20d +2.8% -0.02% -0.02% -6.78%
11.08.25 $339.03 37d +0.29% +2.18% +28.07% +34.04%
23.07.25 $332.56 1d -4.07% +0% +0% +0%
25.04.25 $284.95 29d -0.05% +19.68% +16.53% +15.59%
13.09.24 $230.29 42d +10.39% +6.17% +13.11% +38.54%
24.06.24 $182.58 46d +38.54% +37.75% +27.11% +33.91%
29.04.24 $194.05 3d -13.18% -7.63% -8.54% +0%
20.11.23 $235.60 24d -0.01% +6.99% +5.44% +5.36%
11.09.23 $273.58 8d -10.49% -4.77% -6.85% -7.86%

Signal Statistics – Historical Edge

Calculated edge for TSLA: 73.82%

Range N 10d 20d 30d 60d Signal
>20% 3 +32.76% +40.08% +43.53% +44.24% Hold
15-20% 3 +16.58% +15.05% +17.01% +3.43% Close
10-15% 5 +10.9% +9.42% +14.95% +25.56% Hold
7-10% 1 +7.42% +6.14% +8.13% +469.95% Hold
1-3% 2 +2.19% +3.04% +4.82% +1.43% Close
0-1% 1 +0.29% +2.18% +28.07% +34.04% Hold
-1-0% 3 -0.29% +13.08% +9.56% +17.77% Neg
-3-1% 3 -1.7% +1.61% +11.1% +196.57% Neg
-5-3% 3 -3.73% -3.52% -0.61% +11.7% Neg
-7-5% 2 -6.28% -3.23% +11.8% -0.58% Neg
-10-7% 1 -7.06% -2.24% +2.86% -5.1% Neg
<-10% 4 -13.5% -10.68% -11.42% -4.31% Neg
Exit Rules: Stoploss: -10% | Close if below 0% after 10 days

Signal data as of August 21, 2026

HIGH ALERT ● Neutral Strength: 39.1

Options Metrics

IV-Rank (52w)
6%
Bottom 20% of the past 52 weeks – options are historically cheap. Conditions favor premium buyers (Long Call, Long Put).
Call / Put Flow
78% / 22%
More than 60% of options premium is flowing into calls. This indicates net bullish positioning by market participants.
GEX (Mio.)
109,904,605.1
Positive GEX: market makers are long gamma. They buy dips and sell rallies, which suppresses volatility and keeps price in a range.
GEX Flip Strike
$345.00 · 4.9%
The GEX flip strike is the price level where dealer gamma exposure shifts from positive to negative. A break through this level often accelerates the move.
Max Pain
$340.00 · 6.3%
Max Pain is the price at which the most options contracts expire worthless. As expiration approaches, price often gravitates toward this level due to dealer hedging flows.
Spot Price
$362.86
Last traded price at signal calculation time

Gamma Exposure Timeline

Key GEX levels, Max Pain, and unusual activity across weekly and monthly expirations, plotted around the current spot price.

TSLA GEX timeline showing put/call gamma pins, max pain and flip strike

Key GEX levels, Max Pain, Anchor, Ceiling and unusual activity across 14-30 DTE, plotted around the current spot price.

TSLA GEX timeline showing put/call gamma pins, max pain and flip strike

Put and call pins mark strikes where dealer gamma exposure concentrates. The GEX flip strike is where dealer hedging shifts from stabilizing (positive gamma) to amplifying (negative gamma) price moves. Max Pain is the strike where the most options expire worthless. Dashed markers flag unusual options activity. Learn how to use these signals in our options strategy guides →

Strategy Setups – You Decide

Based on current options data, 2 setups match the current conditions. Each strategy has different risk/reward characteristics – the final decision is always yours.

Profit Loss $0 Stock Price →
Why this fits today

IV-Rank at 6% – options are historically cheap. Bullish flow (78% calls) supports buying upside premium at below-average cost.

Advantages
Unlimited upside potential with maximum loss capped at the premium paid
Low IV-Rank means you are buying at historically cheap levels
Benefits from both a price increase and a subsequent rise in implied volatility
Risks
Time decay (theta) works against the position every day
Requires a meaningful move to overcome the premium paid
Full premium is lost if the stock stays below the strike at expiration
FAQ: Long Call
What is a Long Call?

A Long Call gives the buyer the right to purchase the underlying at the strike price before expiration. The maximum loss is limited to the premium paid. It expresses a bullish directional view and profits if the underlying rises significantly above the strike price.

Why buy calls when IV-Rank is low?

Low IV-Rank means implied volatility is historically cheap - options are priced below their typical levels. Buying premium when it is cheap reduces the hurdle rate for profitability. If IV subsequently rises, the option gains value from both the price move and the increase in implied volatility.

What is the breakeven on a Long Call?

The breakeven equals the strike price plus the premium paid. For example, a call with a $100 strike bought for $3 breaks even at $103. Above that level, the position profits dollar-for-dollar with the stock. Below the strike at expiration, the full premium is lost.

Profit Loss $0 Stock Price →
Why this fits today

IV-Rank at 6% – buying both sides is cost-effective. A subsequent vol expansion or large move benefits both legs simultaneously.

Advantages
Profits from any large directional move without needing to pick a side
Buying when IV is historically cheap reduces the breakeven hurdle
An unexpected vol expansion benefits both the call and put simultaneously
Risks
Requires a significant move to recover the combined premium paid
Theta decay accelerates as expiration approaches
If the stock stays flat, both legs expire worthless
FAQ: Long Straddle
What is a Long Straddle?

A Long Straddle buys a call and a put at the same strike and expiration. It profits from a large move in either direction. When IV is low, the premium cost is reduced, making the breakeven easier to reach on a directional move.

Why buy a straddle when IV is low?

Low IV means you are buying the options cheaply. If IV subsequently rises - due to an event or a directional move - both legs can gain value simultaneously, giving you a double benefit. The key is entering before the vol expansion.

All setups above are personal trade journal observations derived from options flow data. This is not financial advice. The decision to trade, and which strategy to use, is entirely yours.

View full options flow data and historical signals on the Options Flow Analysis Overview →

Valuation

MetricValue
Market Cap$1.35 T
PE Ratio (TTM)314.01
Forward PE157.04
PEG Ratio4.81
EV/EBITDA122.35
Price/Sales13.05
Price/Book15.56
Beta1.83

Profitability

MetricValue
Gross Margin18.85%
Operating Margin1.41%
Net Margin3.67%
ROE4.67%
ROA1.93%

Analyst Consensus (40 Analysts)

MetricValue
Median Target$415
High Target$600
Low Target$125

About Tesla, Inc.

Tesla, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, leases, and sells electric vehicles, and energy generation and storage systems in the United States, China, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Automotive; and Energy Generation and Storage. The company offers electric vehicles, as well as sells automotive regulatory credits; and non-warranty maintenance services and collision, automotive insurance services, as well as part sales and retail merchandise sale. It also provides sedans and sport utility vehicles through direct and used vehicle sales, a network of Tesla Superchargers, and in-app upgrades; purchase financing and leasing services; services for electric vehicles through its company-owned service locations and Tesla mobile service technicians; and vehicle limited warranties and extended service plans. In addition, the company engages in the design, manufacture, installation, sale, and leasing of solar energy generation and energy storage products, and related services to residential, commercial, and industrial customers and utilities through its website, stores, and galleries, as well as through a network of channel partners. Further, it provides services and repairs to its energy product customers, including under warranty and extended service plans; and various financing options to its residential customers; lithium-ion battery energy storage products, such as Powerwall and Megapack; energy generation products, including solar panels and solar roof; self-driving development and artificial intelligence software, vehicle control and infotainment software, and battery and powertrain. The company was formerly known as Tesla Motors, Inc. and changed its name to Tesla, Inc. in February 2017. Tesla, Inc. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.

ETF Holdings

Tesla, Inc. is included in 6 ETFs tracked by StockBotty.

ETF Weight
XLY 19.22%
VCR 16.56%
QQQ 3.87%
DRIV 2.80%
SPY 1.91%
GRID 1.88%

Frequently Asked Questions – Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)

Disclaimer: All trade history on this page reflects the author's personal trading activity only. This is not financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. See our full Disclaimer.