How is TGT valued relative to the market?

TGT currently trades at a trailing P/E of 16.45x and a forward P/E of 16.63x. The stock has a beta of 0.99, meaning it moves roughly less than the broader market on average. Valuation multiples should always be considered alongside earnings growth rate and sector context.

How profitable is TGT?

TGT reports a gross margin of 28.38%, an operating margin of 6.04%, a net profit margin of 4.08%. Return on equity stands at 26.41% and return on assets at 5.69%. These figures provide context for evaluating the quality and sustainability of the company's earnings relative to its peers.

Does TGT pay a dividend?

TGT pays an annual dividend of $4.64, representing a forward yield of 2.98%. The payout ratio is 47.30%, which indicates the share of earnings distributed to shareholders. The most recent dividend date was 2026-08-31. Dividend sustainability should always be evaluated alongside free cash flow trends.

What is the analyst price target for TGT?

Based on a consensus of 34 analysts, the median price target is $160.50, the most optimistic target is $200.00, the most conservative target is $125.00. At the current price of $150.92, the median target implies 6.3% upside. Analyst targets represent 12-month price expectations and should be considered alongside technical signals and momentum data.

TGT is held by 2 ETFs tracked by StockBotty. The largest allocations are in XLP (3.36%), SPY (0.09%). Significant ETF ownership means institutional flows in and out of these funds can influence TGT's price action, particularly around rebalancing dates.

What is the current trend signal for TGT?

As of the most recent session, TGT closed at $150.92. The swing trend is negative with ADX at 41.4 (strong trend strength). Momentum is bearish and has been running for 20 days. A Golden Cross is in place. Volatility has been compressing for 5 consecutive sessions. 30-day historical volatility is at 23.1%.

When was the last Trendchange signal for TGT and what is its historical edge?

The most recent Trendchange signal for TGT fired on 10.06.26 at $127.98. The position has been held for 16 trading days. 10-day return from entry: +10.33%. 20-day return: +1.74%. The historical edge of the signal system for TGT is -0.38% across 123 tracked signals. The best-performing entry bucket historically is the 10-15% range, averaging 10.9% at 10 days and 11.6% at 60 days.

TGT – Target Corporation

Consumer Defensive | Discount Stores | Website

Quick Stats

Trend Signal

$150.92

Last Close

Official EOD price – basis for all calculations

▼ Short

Swing Trend

Moving average structure confirms downtrend – bears in control

-0.38%

Signal Edge

Negative edge across 9 signals – current market regime unfavorable for this signal

41.4

Trend Strength (ADX)

Strong trend – directional signals reliable

Options Signals

IV-Rank (52w)

Options are historically cheap – premium buying favored

41% / 59%

Call / Put Flow

Neutral flow – call and put activity roughly balanced

Last Trendchange Signal

10.06.26

Date

Signal entry date

$127.98

Entry Price

Closing price at signal date

16d

Days Held

Trading days since signal

+10.33%

+10d

Return after 10 trading days

+1.74%

+20d

Return after 20 trading days

+1.74%

+30d

Return after 30 trading days

+1.74%

+60d

Return after 60 trading days

Trend Overview

Volatility Compression – Wait for Breakout Composite Score: -1 / 7

TGT has been in a volatility compression for 5 consecutive sessions. Price is coiling and the range is contracting. This kind of structure typically resolves with an expansion in one direction – and the underlying trend bias remains negative, which tilts the probability toward a downside continuation. The key question is not if the move happens, but when and which way.

What to watch

This is a waiting game. Define the breakout level in advance, set alerts at the range boundaries, and let the market make the first move.

Options Signal Highlight

MEDIUM Strength 5 Long Straddle 📖 View full options analysis →

TGT Price Chart

Technical Trend Analysis

As of 07.10.2026 · Close: $150.92 · ATR14: $2.48

Volatility Compression – Wait for Breakout Composite Score: -1 / 7

What to watch

This is a waiting game. Define the breakout level in advance, set alerts at the range boundaries, and let the market make the first move.

Indicator	Signal	Detail
Swing Trend	▼ Short	Primary directional bias
Momentum	▼ Down · -20d	Strength: -0.30 – Fading
Trend Strength (ADX)	41.4 – Strong	ADX38: 4.4
Volatility (HV30)	23.1% – Calm	HV90: 30.9% \| HV180: 31.2%
Vola Compression	5 days active	Potential breakout building
MA Structure	Golden Cross ✓	Stack: Mostly aligned (2/3)
EMA21 Distance	-1.37 ATR ↑	EMA21: $154.71
GD200 Extension	6.6 ATR – Extended	GD20: -1.4 \| GD50: -1.4 \| GD100: 2.0

🟡 Downside Momentum Easing

Downward momentum has run -20 days but strength is decreasing (-0.30). The move may be exhausting.

💪 Trend Strength – ADX14: 41.4 (Strong)

A strong and well-defined trend. ADX38: 4.4. Trend-following has clear edge here.

🔻 Volatility Calm

HV30: 23.1% | HV90: 30.9% | HV180: 31.2%. Short-term vol is below its 90-day average. Calmer conditions favour tighter setups.

🗜️ Volatility Compression – 5 Days Active

Price has been compressing for 5 sessions. The longer the compression, the more powerful the potential breakout.

⭐ Golden Cross – Long-term Bullish

Golden Cross in place. GD50 $156.42 above GD200 $129.63 by 20.67%. Long-term structure is bullish. MA stack: Mostly aligned (2/3).

📈 EMA21 – Trend Accelerating

Price is pulling away from the EMA21 ($154.71) with -1.37 ATR distance and growing.

📏 Extended Move

6.6 ATR from the 200-day SMA. The trend may be maturing. Disciplined stop management becomes increasingly important.

📐 Key Price Levels & ATR Distance

GD20: $156.32 (-1.4 ATR) | GD50: $156.42 (-1.4 ATR) | GD100: $143.89 (2.0 ATR) | GD200: $129.63 (6.6 ATR). ATR14: $2.48.

Monthly Performance History

Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Total
2010	5.59	1.17	0.69	7.07	-4.03	-8.79	3.46	-0.63	2.29	-2.84	6.96	3.65	25.86
2011	-9.76	-3.36	-4.69	-2.50	1.98	-3.37	7.44	1.74	-3.96	14.54	0.72	-1.80	-13.90
2012	-0.62	10.88	2.65	-0.59	0.36	1.75	4.08	6.34	-0.58	1.20	0.87	-5.03	18.39
2013	2.71	3.55	6.74	2.76	-0.96	-3.09	2.76	-10.99	0.62	1.36	-0.43	0.85	10.15
2014	-10.35	13.73	-2.33	1.94	-7.40	2.59	2.10	1.26	4.12	-0.41	21.07	4.34	24.01
2015	-2.28	4.18	5.65	-3.98	0.24	2.67	-1.36	-2.64	4.34	-2.93	T -5.43	-0.28	-0.84
2016	-1.53	T 8.60	1.63	-3.94	-13.49	2.07	T 7.54	-6.31	-2.69	0.06	T 14.92	-7.19	1.42
2017	-11.38	-6.84	-4.58	T 3.38	-0.05	-6.05	T 7.65	-3.02	4.97	0.26	2.82	9.65	-6.51
2018	11.24	1.41	-6.35	T 5.27	3.45	4.57	6.47	11.70	-0.83	-5.46	T -15.05	-8.65	0.99
2019	9.87	2.97	10.03	-3.18	T 7.28	4.41	-0.62	T 30.55	0.19	0.92	16.64	3.41	99.12
2020	-12.16	-7.94	-14.76	T 15.19	13.62	0.36	5.82	18.86	4.57	-4.02	T 16.76	-1.41	42.86
2021	1.99	0.28	T 6.44	3.26	7.75	6.37	7.22	-3.66	-7.14	T 13.66	-5.14	-3.72	32.08
2022	-4.97	-8.48	T -3.28	8.60	-29.26	-9.77	T 14.74	-2.54	-9.98	T 8.21	2.14	-9.69	-34.39
2023	T 13.46	-4.25	1.99	-5.01	-16.10	0.57	T 1.19	-4.84	-11.91	3.84	22.16	5.67	5.24
2024	-2.81	5.89	14.12	-9.47	-0.17	-3.26	T 3.20	T 4.49	2.67	-1.42	-12.28	3.41	-5.53
2025	T 0.52	-7.39	-13.58	-7.40	T -2.04	T 5.71	-3.23	-3.80	-2.96	T 4.02	-0.91	T 6.99	-28.75
2026	4.93	3.89	7.10	7.72	-1.41	T 5.58	10.90	7.72	-4.31	-3.69			50.15

T A T badge marks a Trendchange signal in that month. Hover for entry price.

TGT - Trendchange Chart

Trendchange Signal History

The last 10 Trendchange signals for TGT:

Date	Entry Price	Days Held	+10d	+20d	+30d	+60d
10.06.26	$127.98	16d	+10.33%	+1.74%	+1.74%	+1.74%
09.12.25	$93.62	54d	+1.69%	+10.73%	+13.76%	+11.19%
22.10.25	$94.02	12d	-4.3%	-4.3%	-4.3%	+0%
27.06.25	$99.23	18d	+5.05%	+6.87%	+3.94%	+3.94%
24.06.25	$97.53	1d	+0%	+0%	+0%	+0%
10.06.25	$100.77	1d	-5.61%	+0%	+0%	+0%
16.05.25	$98.58	2d	+0%	+0%	+0%	+0%
13.01.25	$138.77	4d	+0%	+0%	+0%	+0%
21.08.24	$159.25	4d	-4.25%	-7.06%	-7.06%	-7.06%
15.07.24	$151.30	9d	-3.21%	-3.21%	-3.21%	+0%

Signal Statistics - Historical Edge

Calculated edge for TGT: -0.38%

Range	N	10d	20d	30d	60d	Signal
10-15%	9	+10.91%	+10.71%	+11.43%	+11.63%	Hold
7-10%	3	+7.16%	+6.12%	+5.89%	+6.38%	Close
5-7%	9	+5.94%	+5.95%	+5.67%	+6.26%	Close
3-5%	12	+3.87%	+4.26%	+4.92%	+6.2%	Hold
1-3%	22	+1.87%	+2.86%	+3.81%	+3.86%	Hold
0-1%	7	+0.45%	+3.04%	+4.03%	+4.51%	Hold
-1-0%	7	-0.47%	-0.15%	+0.63%	+1.64%	Neg
-3-1%	23	-1.88%	-0.87%	-0.78%	-0.01%	Neg
-5-3%	21	-4.07%	-3.45%	-3.24%	-1.89%	Neg
-7-5%	7	-5.64%	-3.28%	+0.25%	-0.21%	Neg
-10-7%	1	-7.53%	-7.53%	-7.53%	+0%	Neg
<-10%	2	-10.34%	-13.57%	-13.57%	-13.57%	Neg

Exit Rules: Stoploss: -10% | Close if below 0% after 10 days

Signal data as of October 7, 2026

MEDIUM ALERT ● Neutral Strength: 5

Options Metrics

IV-Rank (52w)

Bottom 20% of the past 52 weeks – options are historically cheap. Conditions favor premium buyers (Long Call, Long Put).

Call / Put Flow

41% / 59%

Call and put premium are roughly balanced. No clear directional bias from options flow.

GEX (Mio.)

-161,032.3

Negative GEX: market makers are short gamma. They sell dips and buy rallies, which amplifies moves and increases volatility.

GEX Flip Strike

$147.00 · 2.6%

The GEX flip strike is the price level where dealer gamma exposure shifts from positive to negative. A break through this level often accelerates the move.

Max Pain

$152.50 · 1%

Max Pain is the price at which the most options contracts expire worthless. As expiration approaches, price often gravitates toward this level due to dealer hedging flows.

Spot Price

$150.92

Last traded price at signal calculation time

Gamma Exposure Timeline

Key GEX levels, Max Pain, and unusual activity across weekly and monthly expirations, plotted around the current spot price.

TGT GEX timeline showing put/call gamma pins, max pain and flip strike

Key GEX levels, Max Pain, Anchor, Ceiling and unusual activity across 14-30 DTE, plotted around the current spot price.

Put and call pins mark strikes where dealer gamma exposure concentrates. The GEX flip strike is where dealer hedging shifts from stabilizing (positive gamma) to amplifying (negative gamma) price moves. Max Pain is the strike where the most options expire worthless. Dashed markers flag unusual options activity. Learn how to use these signals in our options strategy guides →

Strategy Setups – You Decide

Based on current options data, one setup stands out. Each strategy has different risk/reward characteristics – the final decision is always yours.

Setup 1 of 1 Long Straddle Full guide →

Why this fits today

IV-Rank at 9% – buying both sides is cost-effective. A subsequent vol expansion or large move benefits both legs simultaneously.

Advantages

✓ Profits from any large directional move without needing to pick a side

✓ Buying when IV is historically cheap reduces the breakeven hurdle

✓ An unexpected vol expansion benefits both the call and put simultaneously

Risks

✕ Requires a significant move to recover the combined premium paid

✕ Theta decay accelerates as expiration approaches

✕ If the stock stays flat, both legs expire worthless

▶ FAQ: Long Straddle

What is a Long Straddle?

A Long Straddle buys a call and a put at the same strike and expiration. It profits from a large move in either direction. When IV is low, the premium cost is reduced, making the breakeven easier to reach on a directional move.

Why buy a straddle when IV is low?

Low IV means you are buying the options cheaply. If IV subsequently rises - due to an event or a directional move - both legs can gain value simultaneously, giving you a double benefit. The key is entering before the vol expansion.

All setups above are personal trade journal observations derived from options flow data. This is not financial advice. The decision to trade, and which strategy to use, is entirely yours.

View full options flow data and historical signals on the Options Flow Analysis Overview →

Valuation

Metric	Value
Market Cap	$72.10 B
PE Ratio (TTM)	16.45
Forward PE	16.63
PEG Ratio	1.94
EV/EBITDA	9.84
Price/Sales	0.67
Price/Book	4.04
Beta	0.99

Profitability

Metric	Value
Gross Margin	28.38%
Operating Margin	6.04%
Net Margin	4.08%
ROE	26.41%
ROA	5.69%

Dividends

Metric	Value
Annual Dividend	$4.64
Forward Yield	298.00%
Payout Ratio	47.30%
Dividend Date	2026-08-31

Analyst Consensus (34 Analysts)

Metric	Value
Median Target	$160.5
High Target	$200
Low Target	$125

About Target Corporation

Target Corporation operates as a general merchandise retailer in the United States. It offers apparel for women, men, young adults, kids, toddlers, and babies, as well as jewelry, accessories, and shoes; and beauty products, such as skin and bath care, cosmetics, hair care, oral care, deodorant, and shaving products. The company also provides food and beverage products comprising dry and perishable grocery, including snacks, candy, beverages, deli, bakery, meat, produce, and food service; electronics which includes video games and consoles, toys, sporting goods, entertainment, and luggage; bed and bath, home décor, school/office supplies, storage, small appliances, kitchenware, greeting cards, party supplies, furniture, lighting, home improvement, and seasonal merchandise; and household essentials, such as household cleaning, paper products, over-the-counter healthcare, vitamins and supplements, baby gear, and pet supplies. In addition, it sells merchandise through periodic design and creative partnerships, and shop-in-shop experience; and in-store amenities. The company sells its products through its stores; and digital channels, including Target.com. Target Corporation was incorporated in 1902 and is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

ETF Holdings

Target Corporation is included in 2 ETFs tracked by StockBotty.

ETF	Weight
XLP	3.36%
SPY	0.09%

Frequently Asked Questions – Target Corporation (TGT)

Disclaimer: All trade history on this page reflects the author's personal trading activity only. This is not financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. See our full Disclaimer.