MSFT – Microsoft Corporation

Technology | Software - Infrastructure | Website

Quick Stats

Trend Signal
$483.24
Last Close
Official EOD price – basis for all calculations
▲ Long
Swing Trend
Moving average structure confirms uptrend – bulls in control
+18.11%
Signal Edge
Moderate edge across 1 signals – signal performs above random, not exceptional
5.2
Trend Strength (ADX)
Weak / ranging – trend signals less reliable
Options Signals
1%
IV-Rank (52w)
Options are historically cheap – premium buying favored
77% / 23%
Call / Put Flow
Bullish positioning – call premium dominates options flow
Last Trendchange Signal
30.07.26
Date
Signal entry date
$451.10
Entry Price
Closing price at signal date
14d
Days Held
Trading days since signal
+9.16%
+10d
Return after 10 trading days
+7.12%
+20d
Return after 20 trading days
+30d
Not yet reached
+60d
Not yet reached

Trend Overview

Mixed Signals – Caution Composite Score: +1 / 7

MSFT shows mixed signals. Some trend indicators are positive, others are neutral or deteriorating. The picture is not clear enough to lean heavily in either direction with conviction.

What to watch

This is not an environment that rewards aggressive positioning. Reduced exposure or cash is a valid stance.

Options Signal Highlight

Latest MSFT Reports

Aug 19, 2026
Aug 13, 2026
Follow-Up from Signals and Trendchanges MSFT Signal Follow-Up: +9.16% in 10 Days – Edge 18.63%
Aug 13, 2026
Aug 12, 2026

MSFT Price Chart

Technical Trend Analysis

As of 21.08.2026  ·  Close: $483.24  ·  ATR14: $2.55

Mixed Signals – Caution Composite Score: +1 / 7

MSFT shows mixed signals. Some trend indicators are positive, others are neutral or deteriorating. The picture is not clear enough to lean heavily in either direction with conviction.

What to watch

This is not an environment that rewards aggressive positioning. Reduced exposure or cash is a valid stance.

Indicator Signal Detail
Swing Trend ▲ Long Primary directional bias
Momentum ▲ Up · 34d Strength: 0.16 – Fading
Trend Strength (ADX) 5.2 – Weak ADX38: 43.3
Volatility (HV30) 50.8% – Rising HV90: 40.4% | HV180: 36.0%
Vola Compression None Normal range
MA Structure Death Cross ✗ Stack: Mostly aligned (2/3)
EMA21 Distance 5.78 ATR ↑ EMA21: $463.79
GD200 Extension 4.7 ATR – Normal GD20: 0.8 | GD50: 5.9 | GD100: 6.4
⚠️ Momentum Fading
Upward momentum has been running 34 days but strength is declining (0.16). The trend is intact but losing energy.
⚪ Trend Strength – ADX14: 5.2 (Weak)
Weak or ranging market. ADX38: 43.3. Trend-following signals carry lower reliability.
🔺 Volatility Rising
HV30: 50.8% | HV90: 40.4% | HV180: 36.0%. Short-term vol is running above its 90-day average. Wider stops and reduced size may be appropriate.
💀 Death Cross – Long-term Bearish
Death Cross in place. GD50 $419.84 below GD200 $431.31. Long-term structure remains bearish. MA stack: Mostly aligned (2/3).
📈 EMA21 – Trend Accelerating
Price is pulling away from the EMA21 ($463.79) with 5.78 ATR distance and growing.
📐 Key Price Levels & ATR Distance
GD20: $473.09 (0.8 ATR) | GD50: $419.84 (5.9 ATR) | GD100: $415.41 (6.4 ATR) | GD200: $431.31 (4.7 ATR). ATR14: $2.55.

Monthly Performance History

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total
2010 -8.93 1.41 0.92 4.69 -15.98 -11.09 11.43 -10.40 2.42 9.40 -5.67 7.19 -7.94
2011 -0.94 -4.44 -2.93 1.74 -1.93 6.40 5.26 -1.80 -5.05 8.59 -0.84 2.67 -4.77
2012 10.33 6.91 -0.08 -0.82 -8.19 7.52 -3.54 5.47 -2.06 -3.22 -9.06 1.08 2.62
2013 -0.58 0.40 2.33 15.73 7.40 -2.95 -7.35 6.21 4.41 5.45 8.15 -2.69 39.59
2014 1.81 5.80 8.50 -2.48 3.07 2.24 3.09 6.64 2.80 2.28 1.42 -4.46 28.42
2015 -13.60 6.98 -7.34 19.45 -3.06 -6.53 5.07 -6.42 5.85 18.01 2.78 0.47 21.89
2016 0.54 -6.33 5.04 -10.26 5.46 -3.17 10.79 2.19 0.02 4.34 1.44 4.97 16.52
2017 3.32 1.24 1.41 4.44 1.19 -1.67 T
6.64
3.57 0.75 11.47 1.70 1.52 39.75
2018 10.54 -0.06 -1.70 T
5.65
4.49 -2.16 6.07 6.09 2.38 -7.62 T
5.15
-9.38 20.21
2019 T
3.27
9.47 4.80 9.73 -2.93 T
11.78
0.44 T
0.19
2.19 T
4.59
5.69 5.45 58.26
2020 5.98 -6.84 -8.73 T
17.82
5.27 11.31 0.15 4.40 -7.45 T
-4.70
6.08 2.87 39.94
2021 6.56 -2.81 -0.49 T
4.06
-0.64 T
9.50
4.90 6.19 -6.60 T
14.71
0.55 T
1.89
55.79
2022 -7.10 -3.03 T
4.53
-10.31 -4.21 -5.72 T
8.15
-5.75 -10.56 -3.58 T
12.14
-5.84 -27.69
2023 T
3.44
0.85 17.07 6.97 7.47 2.39 -0.61 -2.55 T
-3.93
T
5.07
9.49 0.41 60.41
2024 T
7.20
2.44 1.26 -8.30 T
5.11
8.08 -8.40 0.01 T
5.09
-3.41 T
3.19
-2.20 13.65
2025 T
-0.84
-3.39 -3.37 T
3.42
8.22 7.67 8.42 -3.32 T
2.54
-0.37 -4.84 -0.64 15.54
2026 -9.02 -7.23 -7.12 T
10.40
8.64 -19.00 T
20.93
-0.90 2.18

T A T badge marks a Trendchange signal in that month. Hover for entry price.

Trendchange Signal History

The last 10 Trendchange signals for MSFT:

Date Entry Price Days Held +10d +20d +30d +60d
30.07.26 $451.10 14d +9.16% +7.12% +0% +0%
15.04.26 $411.22 28d +4.38% +0.35% +1.17% +17.51%
30.09.25 $517.95 17d -0.75% +2.62% -0.18% -19.55%
29.04.25 $394.04 74d +14.01% +16.91% +19.51% +31.21%
28.01.25 $447.20 15d -1.09% -1.09% -1.09% +5.18%
14.11.24 $426.89 36d -0.91% +5.31% +2.63% +3.62%
16.09.24 $431.34 9d -0.77% -2.47% -0.74% +0%
14.05.24 $416.56 42d +3.3% +3.87% +8.55% +3.83%
10.01.24 $382.77 65d +5.17% +8.17% +7.54% +21.81%
12.10.23 $331.16 56d +2.87% +9.68% +14.1% +22.77%

Signal Statistics – Historical Edge

Calculated edge for MSFT: 18.11%

Range N 10d 20d 30d 60d Signal
10-15% 1 +14.01% +16.91% +19.51% +31.21% Hold
7-10% 4 +8.74% +6.46% +5.36% +21.49% Hold
5-7% 4 +5.61% +8.15% +8.53% +13.69% Hold
3-5% 6 +3.48% +2.33% +4.15% +17.13% Hold
1-3% 4 +1.81% +4.35% +5.88% +13.22% Hold
0-1% 3 +0.26% +2.71% +3.65% +23.61% Hold
-1-0% 5 -0.6% +1.19% +0.85% +0.49% Neg
-3-1% 6 -1.72% -1.55% -0.26% +9.06% Neg
-5-3% 1 -3.59% -3.59% -3.59% -12.8% Neg
Exit Rules: Stoploss: -10% | Close if below 0% after 10 days

Signal data as of August 21, 2026

HIGH ALERT ● Neutral Strength: 13

Options Metrics

IV-Rank (52w)
1%
Bottom 20% of the past 52 weeks – options are historically cheap. Conditions favor premium buyers (Long Call, Long Put).
Call / Put Flow
77% / 23%
More than 60% of options premium is flowing into calls. This indicates net bullish positioning by market participants.
GEX (Mio.)
4,988,006.4
Positive GEX: market makers are long gamma. They buy dips and sell rallies, which suppresses volatility and keeps price in a range.
GEX Flip Strike
$435.00 · 10%
The GEX flip strike is the price level where dealer gamma exposure shifts from positive to negative. A break through this level often accelerates the move.
Max Pain
$490.00 · 1.4%
Max Pain is the price at which the most options contracts expire worthless. As expiration approaches, price often gravitates toward this level due to dealer hedging flows.
Spot Price
$483.24
Last traded price at signal calculation time

Gamma Exposure Timeline

Key GEX levels, Max Pain, and unusual activity across weekly and monthly expirations, plotted around the current spot price.

MSFT GEX timeline showing put/call gamma pins, max pain and flip strike

Key GEX levels, Max Pain, Anchor, Ceiling and unusual activity across 14-30 DTE, plotted around the current spot price.

MSFT GEX timeline showing put/call gamma pins, max pain and flip strike

Put and call pins mark strikes where dealer gamma exposure concentrates. The GEX flip strike is where dealer hedging shifts from stabilizing (positive gamma) to amplifying (negative gamma) price moves. Max Pain is the strike where the most options expire worthless. Dashed markers flag unusual options activity. Learn how to use these signals in our options strategy guides →

Strategy Setups – You Decide

Based on current options data, 2 setups match the current conditions. Each strategy has different risk/reward characteristics – the final decision is always yours.

Profit Loss $0 Stock Price →
Why this fits today

IV-Rank at 1% – options are historically cheap. Bullish flow (77% calls) supports buying upside premium at below-average cost.

Advantages
Unlimited upside potential with maximum loss capped at the premium paid
Low IV-Rank means you are buying at historically cheap levels
Benefits from both a price increase and a subsequent rise in implied volatility
Risks
Time decay (theta) works against the position every day
Requires a meaningful move to overcome the premium paid
Full premium is lost if the stock stays below the strike at expiration
FAQ: Long Call
What is a Long Call?

A Long Call gives the buyer the right to purchase the underlying at the strike price before expiration. The maximum loss is limited to the premium paid. It expresses a bullish directional view and profits if the underlying rises significantly above the strike price.

Why buy calls when IV-Rank is low?

Low IV-Rank means implied volatility is historically cheap - options are priced below their typical levels. Buying premium when it is cheap reduces the hurdle rate for profitability. If IV subsequently rises, the option gains value from both the price move and the increase in implied volatility.

What is the breakeven on a Long Call?

The breakeven equals the strike price plus the premium paid. For example, a call with a $100 strike bought for $3 breaks even at $103. Above that level, the position profits dollar-for-dollar with the stock. Below the strike at expiration, the full premium is lost.

Profit Loss $0 Stock Price →
Why this fits today

IV-Rank at 1% – buying both sides is cost-effective. A subsequent vol expansion or large move benefits both legs simultaneously.

Advantages
Profits from any large directional move without needing to pick a side
Buying when IV is historically cheap reduces the breakeven hurdle
An unexpected vol expansion benefits both the call and put simultaneously
Risks
Requires a significant move to recover the combined premium paid
Theta decay accelerates as expiration approaches
If the stock stays flat, both legs expire worthless
FAQ: Long Straddle
What is a Long Straddle?

A Long Straddle buys a call and a put at the same strike and expiration. It profits from a large move in either direction. When IV is low, the premium cost is reduced, making the breakeven easier to reach on a directional move.

Why buy a straddle when IV is low?

Low IV means you are buying the options cheaply. If IV subsequently rises - due to an event or a directional move - both legs can gain value simultaneously, giving you a double benefit. The key is entering before the vol expansion.

All setups above are personal trade journal observations derived from options flow data. This is not financial advice. The decision to trade, and which strategy to use, is entirely yours.

View full options flow data and historical signals on the Options Flow Analysis Overview →

Valuation

MetricValue
Market Cap$3.68 T
PE Ratio (TTM)27.71
Forward PE21.02
PEG Ratio1.65
EV/EBITDA19.26
Price/Sales11.09
Price/Book8.32
Beta1.10

Profitability

MetricValue
Gross Margin67.94%
Operating Margin45.11%
Net Margin40.31%
ROE34.04%
ROA14.09%

Dividends

MetricValue
Annual Dividend$3.64
Forward Yield73.00%
Payout Ratio19.83%
Dividend Date2026-09-09

Analyst Consensus (53 Analysts)

MetricValue
Median Target$550
High Target$870
Low Target$400

About Microsoft Corporation

Microsoft Corporation, a technology company, develops and supports a portfolio of technology solutions for individuals and businesses worldwide. Its products include operating systems, server applications, business solution applications, software development tools, desktop and server management tools, and video games; and devices, such as PCs, tablets, gaming and entertainment consoles, other intelligent devices, and related accessories. The company's Productivity and Business Processes segment offers Microsoft 365 Commercial, Enterprise Mobility + Security, Power BI, Exchange, SharePoint, Microsoft Teams, Microsoft 365 Security and Compliance, Microsoft 365 Copilot, and Windows Commercial on-premises and Office licensed on-premises. This segment also provides Microsoft 365 Consumer products and cloud services; LinkedIn, including talent solutions, marketing solutions, subscriptions, and sales solutions; Dynamics 365, a set of cloud-based applications; and on-premises ERP and CRM applications. Its Intelligent Cloud segment offers server products and cloud services; cloud and AI consumption-based services, GitHub cloud services, health and life sciences cloud services, as well as virtual desktop offerings, and other cloud services; SQL Server, Windows Server, Visual Studio, System Center, and related client access licenses; and enterprise support services, industry solutions, Microsoft partner network, and learning experience. The company's More Personal Computing segment provides Windows OEM licensing and devices comprising Surface and PC accessories; XBOX hardware, and XBOX first- and third-party content and services; XBOX Game Pass and other subscriptions; XBOX Cloud Gaming, advertising, and other cloud services; and search advertising consisting of Bing, Copilot, Microsoft News, Microsoft Edge, and third-party affiliates. It sells its products through partners and retail networks. The company was founded in 1975 and is headquartered in Redmond, Washington.

ETF Holdings

Microsoft Corporation is included in 8 ETFs tracked by StockBotty.

ETF Weight
XLK 10.12%
IGV 9.16%
QQQ 5.60%
DIA 4.97%
SPY 4.92%
CHAT 4.39%
DRIV 2.71%
ARTY 2.17%

Frequently Asked Questions – Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)

Disclaimer: All trade history on this page reflects the author's personal trading activity only. This is not financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. See our full Disclaimer.