MS – Morgan Stanley

Financial Services | Capital Markets | Website

Quick Stats

Trend Signal
$214.20
Last Close
Official EOD price – basis for all calculations
▼ Short
Swing Trend
Moving average structure confirms downtrend – bears in control
+13.5%
Signal Edge
Moderate edge across 3 signals – signal performs above random, not exceptional
7.5
Trend Strength (ADX)
Weak / ranging – trend signals less reliable
Options Signals
11%
IV-Rank (52w)
Options are historically cheap – premium buying favored
64% / 36%
Call / Put Flow
Bullish positioning – call premium dominates options flow
Last Trendchange Signal
17.08.26
Date
Signal entry date
$218.21
Entry Price
Closing price at signal date
1d
Days Held
Trading days since signal
-1.82%
+10d
Return after 10 trading days
–
+20d
Not yet reached
–
+30d
Not yet reached
–
+60d
Not yet reached

Trend Overview

Volatility Compression – Wait for Breakout Composite Score: -3 / 7

MS has been in a volatility compression for 8 consecutive sessions. Price is coiling and the range is contracting. This kind of structure typically resolves with an expansion in one direction – and the underlying trend bias remains negative, which tilts the probability toward a downside continuation. The key question is not if the move happens, but when and which way.

What to watch

This is a waiting game. Define the breakout level in advance, set alerts at the range boundaries, and let the market make the first move.

Options Signal Highlight

Latest MS Reports

Aug 18, 2026
Follow-Up from Signals and Trendchanges MS Signal Follow-Up Review: +7.55% in 10 Days | StockBotty
Apr 22, 2026
Apr 08, 2026

MS Price Chart

Technical Trend Analysis

As of 21.08.2026  ·  Close: $214.20  ·  ATR14: $2.61

Volatility Compression – Wait for Breakout Composite Score: -3 / 7

MS has been in a volatility compression for 8 consecutive sessions. Price is coiling and the range is contracting. This kind of structure typically resolves with an expansion in one direction – and the underlying trend bias remains negative, which tilts the probability toward a downside continuation. The key question is not if the move happens, but when and which way.

What to watch

This is a waiting game. Define the breakout level in advance, set alerts at the range boundaries, and let the market make the first move.

Indicator Signal Detail
Swing Trend ▼ Short Primary directional bias
Momentum ▲ Up · 10d Strength: 0.01 – Fading
Trend Strength (ADX) 7.5 – Weak ADX38: 8.1
Volatility (HV30) 32.0% – Rising HV90: 28.5% | HV180: 30.0%
Vola Compression 8 days active Potential breakout building
MA Structure Golden Cross ✓ Stack: Mostly aligned (2/3)
EMA21 Distance ~0 ATR – Near line EMA21: $212.86
GD200 Extension 5.2 ATR – Normal GD20: 0.0 | GD50: -0.5 | GD100: 1.8
⚠️ Momentum Fading
Upward momentum has been running 10 days but strength is declining (0.01). The trend is intact but losing energy.
⚪ Trend Strength – ADX14: 7.5 (Weak)
Weak or ranging market. ADX38: 8.1. Trend-following signals carry lower reliability.
🔺 Volatility Rising
HV30: 32.0% | HV90: 28.5% | HV180: 30.0%. Short-term vol is running above its 90-day average. Wider stops and reduced size may be appropriate.
🗜️ Volatility Compression – 8 Days Active
Price has been compressing for 8 sessions. The longer the compression, the more powerful the potential breakout.
⭐ Golden Cross – Long-term Bullish
Golden Cross in place. GD50 $216.83 above GD200 $188.42 by 15.07%. Long-term structure is bullish. MA stack: Mostly aligned (2/3).
🎯 EMA21 – Reaction Zone
Price is within 0.5 ATR of the EMA21 at $212.86. Watch for a decisive bounce or break.
📐 Key Price Levels & ATR Distance
GD20: $214.09 (0.0 ATR) | GD50: $216.83 (-0.5 ATR) | GD100: $204.43 (1.8 ATR) | GD200: $188.42 (5.2 ATR). ATR14: $2.61.

Monthly Performance History

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total
2010 -13.20 2.27 3.88 3.64 -10.89 -11.22 17.12 -10.83 -2.89 -0.40 -0.91 9.17 -11.32
2011 4.30 -0.80 -5.23 -3.88 -7.19 -0.49 -6.15 -21.52 -20.22 41.84 -8.88 4.34 -45.93
2012 16.26 -4.39 2.33 -12.54 -23.61 14.64 -8.19 11.08 7.95 3.80 -4.24 16.11 20.35
2013 16.48 -4.10 -1.97 2.55 18.50 -4.72 10.85 -7.72 2.56 6.07 7.18 -0.22 61.20
2014 -4.73 6.38 2.98 -0.57 -1.18 4.63 0.38 8.61 0.08 3.20 1.33 10.54 26.41
2015 -12.39 3.97 -1.49 4.17 1.83 0.56 -0.96 -11.11 -4.90 5.15 2.47 -9.84 -16.56
2016 -17.34 -3.92 -4.12 6.60 0.39 -5.47 11.61 12.46 0.45 5.70 23.98 0.22 37.47
2017 -0.85 6.95 -8.48 2.00 -4.57 4.58 3.37 -3.62 4.28 2.73 3.99 1.01 24.27
2018 8.81 -2.48 -0.98 -1.59 -3.23 -7.44 T
6.55 		-2.68 -4.39 -1.40 -3.27 -12.69 -22.36
2019 T
5.45 		T
0.39 		T
-0.73 		11.52 -14.47 7.54 T
2.16 		-3.36 T
4.09 		T
12.13 		4.54 4.16 30.24
2020 1.10 -14.39 -26.85 T
25.76 		15.11 8.06 3.39 5.64 -8.05 T
2.64 		25.20 8.29 35.65
2021 -1.36 13.59 -1.90 T
5.99 		10.30 -0.46 5.07 8.52 -6.72 T
4.49 		-8.83 3.05 47.09
2022 T
3.06 		T
-12.70 		-0.26 -6.56 5.09 T
-10.52 		T
10.89 		1.34 -8.31 3.21 T
11.17 		-8.58 -12.15
2023 T
14.46 		-1.72 -8.72 4.13 -7.02 T
4.05 		T
5.96 		-6.37 -4.76 -11.93 T
11.83 		15.28 21.06
2024 -7.09 -0.90 T
8.88 		-2.88 6.88 -0.23 T
4.08 		T
1.82 		5.01 11.33 12.63 -4.05 33.89
2025 T
10.94 		-2.95 -9.65 T
-0.28 		9.65 9.70 0.99 8.19 6.79 4.53 3.67 5.38 42.27
2026 0.49 -10.04 -1.46 T
14.70 		9.38 -0.93 -0.68 T
1.41 		17.76

T A T badge marks a Trendchange signal in that month. Hover for entry price.

Trendchange Signal History

The last 10 Trendchange signals for MS:

Date Entry Price Days Held +10d +20d +30d +60d
17.08.26 $218.21 1d -1.82% +0% +0% +0%
08.04.26 $176.02 40d +7.55% +7.52% +7.7% +21.71%
29.04.25 $116.21 95d +9.34% +11.19% +13.43% +84.35%
16.01.25 $135.81 23d +3.04% +0.76% +3.59% -4.65%
21.08.24 $100.69 38d -0.54% -1.38% +3.8% +39.73%
08.07.24 $100.59 21d +1.49% +2.6% +2.6% +0%
05.03.24 $89.13 34d -1.31% +4.02% +2.83% +16.25%
04.03.24 $90.04 0d +0% +0% +0% +0%
15.11.23 $79.68 40d -1.42% +7.47% +17.52% +17.78%
17.07.23 $86.37 24d +6.02% +3.21% +3.21% +7.95%

Signal Statistics – Historical Edge

Calculated edge for MS: 13.5%

Range N 10d 20d 30d 60d Signal
7-10% 3 +8.1% +9.97% +9.79% +42.54% Hold
5-7% 6 +5.92% +6.49% +7.99% +21.92% Hold
3-5% 3 +3.8% +4.76% +6.18% +6.08% Close
1-3% 4 +1.86% +1.57% +6.22% +21.97% Hold
0-1% 6 +0.35% +1.33% +2.23% +4.16% Hold
-1-0% 3 -0.46% -0.13% +0.73% +9.83% Neg
-3-1% 7 -1.88% +1.23% +3.55% +2.19% Neg
-5-3% 3 -3.44% -2.91% -0.82% -3.12% Neg
-7-5% 2 -5.24% +3.37% +7.98% +0% Neg
-10-7% 1 -8.25% +7.93% +24.04% +89.21% Neg
Exit Rules: Stoploss: -10% | Close if below 0% after 10 days

Signal data as of August 21, 2026

MEDIUM ALERT ● Neutral Strength: 6.3

Options Metrics

IV-Rank (52w)
11%
Bottom 20% of the past 52 weeks – options are historically cheap. Conditions favor premium buyers (Long Call, Long Put).
Call / Put Flow
64% / 36%
More than 60% of options premium is flowing into calls. This indicates net bullish positioning by market participants.
GEX (Mio.)
454,641.2
Positive GEX: market makers are long gamma. They buy dips and sell rallies, which suppresses volatility and keeps price in a range.
GEX Flip Strike
$217.50 · 1.5%
GEX flip strike is very close to spot price. Crossing this level can trigger a regime change – from suppressed to amplified volatility.
Max Pain
$215.00 · 0.4%
Max Pain is the price at which the most options contracts expire worthless. As expiration approaches, price often gravitates toward this level due to dealer hedging flows.
Spot Price
$214.20
Last traded price at signal calculation time

Gamma Exposure Timeline

Key GEX levels, Max Pain, and unusual activity across weekly and monthly expirations, plotted around the current spot price.

MS GEX timeline showing put/call gamma pins, max pain and flip strike

Key GEX levels, Max Pain, Anchor, Ceiling and unusual activity across 14-30 DTE, plotted around the current spot price.

MS GEX timeline showing put/call gamma pins, max pain and flip strike

Put and call pins mark strikes where dealer gamma exposure concentrates. The GEX flip strike is where dealer hedging shifts from stabilizing (positive gamma) to amplifying (negative gamma) price moves. Max Pain is the strike where the most options expire worthless. Dashed markers flag unusual options activity. Learn how to use these signals in our options strategy guides →

Strategy Setups – You Decide

Based on current options data, 2 setups match the current conditions. Each strategy has different risk/reward characteristics – the final decision is always yours.

Profit Loss $0 Stock Price →
Why this fits today

IV-Rank at 11% – options are historically cheap. Bullish flow (64% calls) supports buying upside premium at below-average cost.

Advantages
✓ Unlimited upside potential with maximum loss capped at the premium paid
✓ Low IV-Rank means you are buying at historically cheap levels
✓ Benefits from both a price increase and a subsequent rise in implied volatility
Risks
✕ Time decay (theta) works against the position every day
✕ Requires a meaningful move to overcome the premium paid
✕ Full premium is lost if the stock stays below the strike at expiration
▶ FAQ: Long Call
What is a Long Call?

A Long Call gives the buyer the right to purchase the underlying at the strike price before expiration. The maximum loss is limited to the premium paid. It expresses a bullish directional view and profits if the underlying rises significantly above the strike price.

Why buy calls when IV-Rank is low?

Low IV-Rank means implied volatility is historically cheap - options are priced below their typical levels. Buying premium when it is cheap reduces the hurdle rate for profitability. If IV subsequently rises, the option gains value from both the price move and the increase in implied volatility.

What is the breakeven on a Long Call?

The breakeven equals the strike price plus the premium paid. For example, a call with a $100 strike bought for $3 breaks even at $103. Above that level, the position profits dollar-for-dollar with the stock. Below the strike at expiration, the full premium is lost.

Profit Loss $0 Stock Price →
Why this fits today

IV-Rank at 11% – buying both sides is cost-effective. A subsequent vol expansion or large move benefits both legs simultaneously.

Advantages
✓ Profits from any large directional move without needing to pick a side
✓ Buying when IV is historically cheap reduces the breakeven hurdle
✓ An unexpected vol expansion benefits both the call and put simultaneously
Risks
✕ Requires a significant move to recover the combined premium paid
✕ Theta decay accelerates as expiration approaches
✕ If the stock stays flat, both legs expire worthless
▶ FAQ: Long Straddle
What is a Long Straddle?

A Long Straddle buys a call and a put at the same strike and expiration. It profits from a large move in either direction. When IV is low, the premium cost is reduced, making the breakeven easier to reach on a directional move.

Why buy a straddle when IV is low?

Low IV means you are buying the options cheaply. If IV subsequently rises - due to an event or a directional move - both legs can gain value simultaneously, giving you a double benefit. The key is entering before the vol expansion.

All setups above are personal trade journal observations derived from options flow data. This is not financial advice. The decision to trade, and which strategy to use, is entirely yours.

View full options flow data and historical signals on the Options Flow Analysis Overview →

Valuation

MetricValue
Market Cap$341.69 B
PE Ratio (TTM)17.56
Forward PE15.94
PEG Ratio2.04
Price/Sales4.39
Price/Book3.21
Beta1.21

Profitability

MetricValue
Gross Margin87.64%
Operating Margin41.57%
Net Margin25.90%
ROE17.97%
ROA1.35%

Dividends

MetricValue
Annual Dividend$4.6
Forward Yield211.00%
Payout Ratio32.31%
Dividend Date2026-08-13

Analyst Consensus (21 Analysts)

MetricValue
Median Target$243
High Target$262
Low Target$184

About Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, provides various financial products and services to corporations, governments, financial institutions, and individuals in the Americas, Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. It operates through Institutional Securities, Wealth Management, and Investment Management segments. The company offers capital raising and financial advisory services, including services related to the underwriting of debt, equity securities, and other products, as well as advice on mergers and acquisitions, restructurings, and project finance. It also provides equity and fixed income products comprising sales, financing, prime brokerage, and market-making services; Asia wealth management; business-related investments services; originating corporate and commercial real estate loans, secured lending facilities, and extending securities-based and other financing; and research activities. In addition, the company offers financial advisor-led brokerage, investment advisory, custody, cash management, and administrative services; self-directed brokerage services; financial and wealth planning services; stock plan administration; securities-based lending, residential real estate loans, and other lending products; banking; and retirement plan services. Further, it provides equity, fixed income, alternatives and solutions, and liquidity and overlay services to benefit/defined contribution plans, foundations, endowments, government entities, sovereign wealth funds, insurance companies, third-party fund sponsors, corporations, and individuals. Morgan Stanley was founded in 1924 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

ETF Holdings

Morgan Stanley is included in 2 ETFs tracked by StockBotty.

ETF Weight
XLF 2.67%
SPY 0.35%

Frequently Asked Questions – Morgan Stanley (MS)

Disclaimer: All trade history on this page reflects the author's personal trading activity only. This is not financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. See our full Disclaimer.