HD – Home Depot, Inc. (The)

Consumer Cyclical | Home Improvement Retail | Website

Quick Stats

Trend Signal
$335.61
Last Close
Official EOD price – basis for all calculations
▲ Long
Swing Trend
Moving average structure confirms uptrend – bulls in control
+12.5%
Signal Edge
Moderate edge across 1 signals – signal performs above random, not exceptional
0.6
Trend Strength (ADX)
Weak / ranging – trend signals less reliable
Options Signals
4%
IV-Rank (52w)
Options are historically cheap – premium buying favored
61% / 39%
Call / Put Flow
Bullish positioning – call premium dominates options flow
Last Trendchange Signal
06.08.26
Date
Signal entry date
$349.52
Entry Price
Closing price at signal date
2d
Days Held
Trading days since signal
-1.49%
+10d
Return after 10 trading days
+20d
Not yet reached
+30d
Not yet reached
+60d
Not yet reached

Trend Overview

Trend Under Pressure – Bearish Composite Score: -2 / 7

HD is showing signs of trend deterioration. The primary trend is losing structural support. Momentum has been running negative for -4 days though selling strength is beginning to ease. The moving average structure is breaking down.

What to watch

This is not an environment for new long exposure. If holding a position, reassess the stop placement relative to the EMA21 at $337.30 and GD50 at $340.08.

Options Signal Highlight

Latest HD Reports

Follow-Up from Signals and Trendchanges HD Signal Follow-Up: -1.49% at 10 Days, Exit Triggered
Aug 20, 2026

HD Price Chart

Technical Trend Analysis

As of 21.08.2026  ·  Close: $335.61  ·  ATR14: $2.70

Trend Under Pressure – Bearish Composite Score: -2 / 7

HD is showing signs of trend deterioration. The primary trend is losing structural support. Momentum has been running negative for -4 days though selling strength is beginning to ease. The moving average structure is breaking down.

What to watch

This is not an environment for new long exposure. If holding a position, reassess the stop placement relative to the EMA21 at $337.30 and GD50 at $340.08.

Indicator Signal Detail
Swing Trend ▲ Long Primary directional bias
Momentum ▼ Down · -4d Strength: -0.18 – Fading
Trend Strength (ADX) 0.6 – Weak ADX38: 1.9
Volatility (HV30) 27.2% – Calm HV90: 28.1% | HV180: 26.6%
Vola Compression None Normal range
MA Structure Death Cross ✗ Stack: Mostly aligned (2/3)
EMA21 Distance -1.97 ATR ↓ EMA21: $337.30
GD200 Extension -1.1 ATR – Normal GD20: -0.7 | GD50: -0.5 | GD100: 0.5
🟡 Downside Momentum Easing
Downward momentum has run -4 days but strength is decreasing (-0.18). The move may be exhausting.
⚪ Trend Strength – ADX14: 0.6 (Weak)
Weak or ranging market. ADX38: 1.9. Trend-following signals carry lower reliability.
🔻 Volatility Calm
HV30: 27.2% | HV90: 28.1% | HV180: 26.6%. Short-term vol is below its 90-day average. Calmer conditions favour tighter setups.
💀 Death Cross – Long-term Bearish
Death Cross in place. GD50 $340.08 below GD200 $346.04. Long-term structure remains bearish. MA stack: Mostly aligned (2/3).
📉 EMA21 – Gap Narrowing
Price is -1.97 ATR from the EMA21 ($337.30) but the distance is shrinking.
📐 Key Price Levels & ATR Distance
GD20: $342.49 (-0.7 ATR) | GD50: $340.08 (-0.5 ATR) | GD100: $331.29 (0.5 ATR) | GD200: $346.04 (-1.1 ATR). ATR14: $2.70.

Monthly Performance History

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total
2010 -2.31 9.92 3.71 8.82 -5.63 -16.30 2.08 -3.64 10.51 -2.90 -0.89 10.90 26.08
2011 4.13 1.31 1.52 -1.10 -2.85 3.09 -4.91 -1.81 -0.17 13.34 11.22 6.85 22.60
2012 5.34 7.00 6.64 3.59 -5.14 10.50 -1.55 10.35 6.32 1.33 4.98 -4.83 49.95
2013 5.42 1.80 1.63 5.28 8.10 -1.54 2.82 -5.28 2.64 2.14 4.78 3.72 32.41
2014 -6.30 9.24 -2.95 0.17 1.13 0.74 -1.19 17.24 0.65 7.13 3.45 6.66 30.74
2015 0.96 9.88 -1.66 -5.43 1.70 0.03 4.43 -0.36 2.13 5.65 7.61 -1.62 30.44
2016 -4.05 -1.89 6.74 -0.72 -2.38 -3.14 6.65 -2.86 -4.13 -5.05 8.50 3.56 4.47
2017 2.43 5.43 0.71 6.46 0.12 -1.13 -2.87 0.60 8.48 1.07 9.28 5.05 44.37
2018 6.85 -8.82 -0.21 T
6.88
1.61 4.14 1.81 T
2.80
1.01 -15.28 0.52 -5.46 -6.55
2019 T
6.45
0.42 T
4.40
4.12 -4.50 T
10.47
1.62 T
7.09
4.18 1.52 -7.09 0.99 30.12
2020 T
3.84
-5.92 -18.26 T
23.07
13.68 1.91 6.99 7.09 -2.36 T
-3.93
2.47 -3.45 23.77
2021 T
2.62
-4.34 T
17.41
5.17 -3.44 1.35 T
2.07
-0.32 T
1.43
12.69 9.31 3.64 60.54
2022 -10.20 -14.34 -5.97 -0.50 -1.37 T
-7.71
T
7.83
-5.07 -5.94 T
4.38
10.09 -3.43 -20.76
2023 2.61 T
-9.62
2.22 T
0.94
-4.10 T
7.72
7.68 -0.53 -9.28 -5.05 T
9.37
8.43 19.18
2024 2.28 5.70 -0.22 -9.19 0.87 T
4.95
9.51 2.77 11.09 -3.74 T
9.31
-8.89 12.72
2025 T
6.05
-2.97 -5.95 T
-1.38
T
2.79
-0.36 T
-1.51
8.86 -0.28 -4.39 -5.66 -3.70 -11.42
2026 8.32 0.69 -11.30 -0.23 -2.08 T
13.52
-5.38 T
-1.30
-2.95

T A T badge marks a Trendchange signal in that month. Hover for entry price.

Trendchange Signal History

The last 10 Trendchange signals for HD:

Date Entry Price Days Held +10d +20d +30d +60d
06.08.26 $349.52 2d -1.49% +0% +0% +0%
15.06.26 $329.82 22d +6.36% +4.09% +4.44% +0%
02.07.25 $371.85 34d -3.89% +0.06% +9.5% -7.41%
01.07.25 $373.16 0d +0% +0% +0% +0%
01.05.25 $358.30 22d +4.05% +2.79% +3.06% +5.31%
30.04.25 $360.49 0d +0% +0% +0% +0%
23.01.25 $414.39 12d -0.14% -0.47% -0.47% -10.89%
19.11.24 $406.80 23d +5.54% +1.87% +1.87% +1.38%
13.06.24 $347.88 42d -1.84% +3.42% +3.34% +18.43%
12.06.24 $344.14 0d +0% +0% +0% +0%

Signal Statistics – Historical Edge

Calculated edge for HD: 12.5%

Range N 10d 20d 30d 60d Signal
10-15% 1 +10.99% +15.13% +22.66% +43.2% Hold
7-10% 1 +9.07% +15.17% +14.88% +20.92% Hold
5-7% 2 +5.95% +2.98% +3.16% +0.69% Close
3-5% 5 +4.23% +7.8% +7.73% +12.86% Hold
1-3% 7 +2.13% +4.19% +3.79% +10.19% Hold
0-1% 3 +0.58% +0.47% +5.36% +2.48% Close
-1-0% 5 -0.28% +3.29% +5.88% +8.66% Neg
-3-1% 4 -1.85% -0.16% -0.18% +4.61% Neg
-5-3% 1 -3.89% +0.06% +9.5% -7.41% Neg
-7-5% 2 -5.3% -2.08% -1.4% +9.08% Neg
Exit Rules: Stoploss: -10% | Close if below 1% after 10 days

Signal data as of August 21, 2026

MEDIUM ALERT ● Neutral Strength: 6.5

Options Metrics

IV-Rank (52w)
4%
Bottom 20% of the past 52 weeks – options are historically cheap. Conditions favor premium buyers (Long Call, Long Put).
Call / Put Flow
61% / 39%
More than 60% of options premium is flowing into calls. This indicates net bullish positioning by market participants.
GEX (Mio.)
-2,641,269.0
Negative GEX: market makers are short gamma. They sell dips and buy rallies, which amplifies moves and increases volatility.
GEX Flip Strike
$337.50 · 0.6%
GEX flip strike is very close to spot price. Crossing this level can trigger a regime change – from suppressed to amplified volatility.
Max Pain
$340.00 · 1.3%
Max Pain is the price at which the most options contracts expire worthless. As expiration approaches, price often gravitates toward this level due to dealer hedging flows.
Spot Price
$335.61
Last traded price at signal calculation time

Gamma Exposure Timeline

Key GEX levels, Max Pain, and unusual activity across weekly and monthly expirations, plotted around the current spot price.

HD GEX timeline showing put/call gamma pins, max pain and flip strike

Key GEX levels, Max Pain, Anchor, Ceiling and unusual activity across 14-30 DTE, plotted around the current spot price.

HD GEX timeline showing put/call gamma pins, max pain and flip strike

Put and call pins mark strikes where dealer gamma exposure concentrates. The GEX flip strike is where dealer hedging shifts from stabilizing (positive gamma) to amplifying (negative gamma) price moves. Max Pain is the strike where the most options expire worthless. Dashed markers flag unusual options activity. Learn how to use these signals in our options strategy guides →

Strategy Setups – You Decide

Based on current options data, 2 setups match the current conditions. Each strategy has different risk/reward characteristics – the final decision is always yours.

Profit Loss $0 Stock Price →
Why this fits today

IV-Rank at 4% – options are historically cheap. Bullish flow (61% calls) supports buying upside premium at below-average cost.

Advantages
Unlimited upside potential with maximum loss capped at the premium paid
Low IV-Rank means you are buying at historically cheap levels
Benefits from both a price increase and a subsequent rise in implied volatility
Risks
Time decay (theta) works against the position every day
Requires a meaningful move to overcome the premium paid
Full premium is lost if the stock stays below the strike at expiration
FAQ: Long Call
What is a Long Call?

A Long Call gives the buyer the right to purchase the underlying at the strike price before expiration. The maximum loss is limited to the premium paid. It expresses a bullish directional view and profits if the underlying rises significantly above the strike price.

Why buy calls when IV-Rank is low?

Low IV-Rank means implied volatility is historically cheap - options are priced below their typical levels. Buying premium when it is cheap reduces the hurdle rate for profitability. If IV subsequently rises, the option gains value from both the price move and the increase in implied volatility.

What is the breakeven on a Long Call?

The breakeven equals the strike price plus the premium paid. For example, a call with a $100 strike bought for $3 breaks even at $103. Above that level, the position profits dollar-for-dollar with the stock. Below the strike at expiration, the full premium is lost.

Profit Loss $0 Stock Price →
Why this fits today

IV-Rank at 4% – buying both sides is cost-effective. A subsequent vol expansion or large move benefits both legs simultaneously.

Advantages
Profits from any large directional move without needing to pick a side
Buying when IV is historically cheap reduces the breakeven hurdle
An unexpected vol expansion benefits both the call and put simultaneously
Risks
Requires a significant move to recover the combined premium paid
Theta decay accelerates as expiration approaches
If the stock stays flat, both legs expire worthless
FAQ: Long Straddle
What is a Long Straddle?

A Long Straddle buys a call and a put at the same strike and expiration. It profits from a large move in either direction. When IV is low, the premium cost is reduced, making the breakeven easier to reach on a directional move.

Why buy a straddle when IV is low?

Low IV means you are buying the options cheaply. If IV subsequently rises - due to an event or a directional move - both legs can gain value simultaneously, giving you a double benefit. The key is entering before the vol expansion.

All setups above are personal trade journal observations derived from options flow data. This is not financial advice. The decision to trade, and which strategy to use, is entirely yours.

View full options flow data and historical signals on the Options Flow Analysis Overview →

Valuation

MetricValue
PE Ratio (TTM)24.27
Forward PE21.04
PEG Ratio1.98
EV/EBITDA16.04
Price/Book24.35
Beta0.96

Profitability

MetricValue
Gross Margin33.13%
Operating Margin11.93%
Net Margin8.41%
ROE128.38%
ROA12.52%

Dividends

MetricValue
Annual Dividend$9.32
Forward Yield273.00%
Payout Ratio65.55%
Dividend Date2026-06-17

Analyst Consensus (32 Analysts)

MetricValue
Median Target$377.5
High Target$430
Low Target$310

About Home Depot, Inc. (The)

The Home Depot, Inc. operates as a home improvement retailer in the United States and internationally. It sells various building materials, home improvement products, lawn and garden products, and décor products, as well as facilities maintenance, repair, and operations products. The company also offers installation services for flooring, water heaters, baths, garage doors, cabinets, cabinet makeovers, countertops, sheds, furnaces and central air systems, windows, and window coverings. In addition, it provides tool and equipment rental services. The company serves consumers, such as do-it-yourself homeowners and do-it-for-me customers; and professional renovators/remodelers, general contractors, homebuilders, maintenance professionals, handymen, property managers, building service contractors and specialty tradespeople, such as electricians, landscapers, insulation installers, plumbers, painters, pool contractors, roofers, and wallboard and ceiling installers. It sells its products through websites and its mobile applications, including homedepot.com; homedepot.ca and homedepot.com.mx; blinds.com, justblinds.com, and americanblinds.com for custom window coverings; constructionresourcesusa.com or design-oriented surfaces, appliances, and architectural specialty products; thecompanystore.com, an online site for textiles and décor products; hdsupply.com for maintenance, repair, and operations products and related services; and srsdistribution.com, heritagelandscapesupplygroup.com, heritagepoolsupplygroup.com, and gms.com for roofing and building materials, landscape, and pool products; and The Home Depot stores. The Home Depot, Inc. was incorporated in 1978 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

ETF Holdings

Home Depot, Inc. (The) is included in 4 ETFs tracked by StockBotty.

ETF Weight
XLY 6.09%
VCR 5.29%
DIA 4.41%
SPY 0.59%

Frequently Asked Questions – Home Depot, Inc. (The) (HD)

Disclaimer: All trade history on this page reflects the author's personal trading activity only. This is not financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. See our full Disclaimer.