How is CAT valued relative to the market?

CAT currently trades at a trailing P/E of 33.72x and a forward P/E of 24.21x. The stock has a beta of 1.59, meaning it moves roughly more than the broader market on average. Valuation multiples should always be considered alongside earnings growth rate and sector context.

How profitable is CAT?

CAT reports a gross margin of 29.71%, an operating margin of 22.18%, a net profit margin of 14.51%. Return on equity stands at 56.97% and return on assets at 9.03%. These figures provide context for evaluating the quality and sustainability of the company's earnings relative to its peers.

Does CAT pay a dividend?

CAT pays an annual dividend of $6.52, representing a forward yield of 80.00%. The payout ratio is 26.01%, which indicates the share of earnings distributed to shareholders. The most recent dividend date was 2026-08-18. Dividend sustainability should always be evaluated alongside free cash flow trends.

What is the analyst price target for CAT?

Based on a consensus of 26 analysts, the median price target is $980.50, the most optimistic target is $1,225.00, the most conservative target is $575.00. At the current price of $813.83, the median target implies 20.5% upside. Analyst targets represent 12-month price expectations and should be considered alongside technical signals and momentum data.

CAT is held by 4 ETFs tracked by StockBotty. The largest allocations are in DIA (9.55%), XLI (6.43%), IFRA (0.64%). Significant ETF ownership means institutional flows in and out of these funds can influence CAT's price action, particularly around rebalancing dates.

What is the current trend signal for CAT?

As of the most recent session, CAT closed at $813.83. The swing trend is positive with ADX at 4.6 (weak trend strength). Momentum is bullish and has been running for 13 days. A Golden Cross is in place. 30-day historical volatility is at 30.9%.

When was the last Trendchange signal for CAT and what is its historical edge?

The most recent Trendchange signal for CAT fired on 06.10.26 at $863.44. The position has been held for 1 trading days. 10-day return from entry: -5.75%. The historical edge of the signal system for CAT is +7.08% across 123 tracked signals. The best-performing entry bucket historically is the >20% range, averaging 25.1% at 10 days and 31% at 60 days.

CAT – Caterpillar Inc.

Industrials | Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery | Website

Quick Stats

Trend Signal

$813.83

Last Close

Official EOD price – basis for all calculations

▲ Long

Swing Trend

Moving average structure confirms uptrend – bulls in control

+7.08%

Signal Edge

Slim positive edge across 1 signals – treat with caution

4.6

Trend Strength (ADX)

Weak / ranging – trend signals less reliable

Options Signals

12%

IV-Rank (52w)

Options are historically cheap – premium buying favored

70% / 30%

Call / Put Flow

Bullish positioning – call premium dominates options flow

Last Trendchange Signal

06.10.26

Date

Signal entry date

$863.44

Entry Price

Closing price at signal date

Days Held

Trading days since signal

-5.75%

+10d

Return after 10 trading days

–

+20d

Not yet reached

–

+30d

Not yet reached

–

+60d

Not yet reached

Trend Overview

EMA21 Cross – Directional Shift Composite Score: 0 / 7

CAT has just crossed the 21-day EMA at $811.53, now trading above the line. Bulls have reclaimed a key reference. Whether this becomes a sustained move or a failed breakout depends on momentum confirming in the sessions ahead.

What to watch

The cross is a signal, not a confirmation. Watch for a successful retest of the EMA21 from above – that would be the higher-confidence entry.

Options Signal Highlight

HIGH Strength 20.5 Long Call 📖 View full options analysis →

CAT Price Chart

Technical Trend Analysis

As of 07.10.2026 · Close: $813.83 · ATR14: $3.30

EMA21 Cross – Directional Shift Composite Score: 0 / 7

What to watch

The cross is a signal, not a confirmation. Watch for a successful retest of the EMA21 from above – that would be the higher-confidence entry.

Indicator	Signal	Detail
Swing Trend	▲ Long	Primary directional bias
Momentum	▲ Up · 13d	Strength: 0.56 – Fading
Trend Strength (ADX)	4.6 – Weak	ADX38: 4.6
Volatility (HV30)	30.9% – Calm	HV90: 42.9% \| HV180: 41.4%
Vola Compression	None	Normal range
MA Structure	Golden Cross ✓	Stack: Partially aligned (1/3)
EMA21 Distance	~0 ATR – Near line	EMA21: $811.53
GD200 Extension	0.6 ATR – Normal	GD20: 0.0 \| GD50: -0.3 \| GD100: -2.1

⚠️ Momentum Fading

Upward momentum has been running 13 days but strength is declining (0.56). The trend is intact but losing energy.

⚪ Trend Strength – ADX14: 4.6 (Weak)

Weak or ranging market. ADX38: 4.6. Trend-following signals carry lower reliability.

🔻 Volatility Calm

HV30: 30.9% | HV90: 42.9% | HV180: 41.4%. Short-term vol is below its 90-day average. Calmer conditions favour tighter setups.

⭐ Golden Cross – Long-term Bullish

Golden Cross in place. GD50 $821.90 above GD200 $799.14 by 2.85%. Long-term structure is bullish. MA stack: Partially aligned (1/3).

⚡ EMA21 – Fresh Cross

Price has just crossed the 21-day EMA at $811.53, now trading above. Often marks a near-term directional shift.

📐 Key Price Levels & ATR Distance

GD20: $814.97 (0.0 ATR) | GD50: $821.90 (-0.3 ATR) | GD100: $873.05 (-2.1 ATR) | GD200: $799.14 (0.6 ATR). ATR14: $3.30.

Monthly Performance History

Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Total
2010	-10.18	7.79	8.64	7.07	-13.13	1.34	17.06	-8.29	15.43	1.03	6.73	7.10	64.03
2011	3.51	5.03	11.51	2.45	-7.50	5.16	-8.67	-9.65	-16.61	34.64	6.82	-6.42	-1.96
2012	16.63	3.34	-6.05	-3.77	-14.19	-0.71	1.27	3.25	4.09	-0.18	-2.75	6.68	-2.05
2013	5.24	-7.16	-4.81	-0.50	3.28	-4.24	0.94	-2.24	1.08	0.23	1.21	7.79	-0.88
2014	5.18	4.93	3.18	6.22	-2.71	4.74	-7.13	8.51	-9.07	4.68	0.37	-7.54	4.57
2015	-12.25	2.54	-3.59	9.99	-2.35	-0.83	-5.48	-1.06	-12.74	14.64	-2.27	-5.03	-23.26
2016	-7.31	7.99	10.78	2.21	-6.84	4.89	9.31	0.00	8.99	-4.62	16.20	-3.64	42.04
2017	2.62	1.63	-5.91	T 11.75	3.37	1.72	7.29	3.88	5.43	9.53	3.57	11.35	72.71
2018	4.14	T -4.69	-1.89	T 0.83	T 5.18	-11.62	6.16	T 0.23	10.30	-19.82	8.80	T -8.55	-17.27
2019	T 6.04	4.91	-1.43	T 0.01	-13.27	T 12.96	-2.87	-6.15	T 7.93	13.49	0.17	3.30	20.16
2020	-12.12	-4.26	-9.06	T 5.48	T 8.34	4.98	6.20	8.00	2.12	7.70	6.32	5.06	24.57
2021	0.91	16.86	5.51	-1.55	5.66	-10.35	-4.08	T 2.78	-7.69	5.56	-5.86	T 7.97	15.87
2022	-2.15	-8.65	T 21.87	-3.74	1.79	T -17.84	11.97	T -5.21	-10.06	T 27.26	8.19	1.64	18.45
2023	6.12	-4.01	-7.98	-4.30	T -1.11	17.69	7.21	-2.61	-4.63	-16.81	8.15	T 15.15	30.57
2024	2.60	8.54	8.83	-8.02	T 2.25	0.53	T 5.20	T 7.41	14.95	-4.13	T 6.98	-9.88	23.93
2025	T 3.24	-4.87	-0.67	-6.44	T 10.85	12.63	12.05	-2.25	T 14.69	20.06	0.91	0.85	59.23
2026	9.85	7.51	-5.83	T 21.88	-1.55	23.06	-17.81	-3.92	4.06	T -1.52			36.00

T A T badge marks a Trendchange signal in that month. Hover for entry price.

CAT - Trendchange Chart

Trendchange Signal History

The last 10 Trendchange signals for CAT:

Date	Entry Price	Days Held	+10d	+20d	+30d	+60d
06.10.26	$863.44	1d	-5.75%	+0%	+0%	+0%
08.04.26	$771.58	46d	+3.74%	+17.24%	+11.97%	+11.97%
11.09.25	$431.38	52d	+8.9%	+16.4%	+19.13%	+27.97%
02.05.25	$323.68	45d	+8.07%	+7.52%	+10.31%	+28.87%
21.01.25	$398.36	12d	-6.76%	-6.76%	-6.76%	-6.76%
27.11.24	$403.70	6d	-1.1%	-1.1%	-1.1%	+0%
21.08.24	$342.97	20d	-1.81%	-2.74%	-2.74%	-2.74%
16.07.24	$360.58	3d	-4.45%	-3.99%	-3.99%	+0%
22.05.24	$355.94	3d	-1.98%	-1.98%	-1.98%	+0%
01.12.23	$256.76	40d	+11.06%	+15.15%	+11.87%	+11.87%

Signal Statistics - Historical Edge

Calculated edge for CAT: 7.08%

Range	N	10d	20d	30d	60d	Signal
>20%	1	+25.1%	+35.58%	+30.95%	+30.95%	Hold
15-20%	1	+18.72%	+29.71%	+28.95%	+27.55%	Hold
10-15%	7	+11.77%	+11.54%	+13.26%	+14.59%	Hold
7-10%	7	+8.45%	+10.21%	+15.94%	+22.05%	Hold
5-7%	11	+5.72%	+3.34%	+3.4%	+2.4%	Close
3-5%	12	+3.8%	+5.94%	+7.26%	+7.37%	Hold
1-3%	17	+2.09%	+4.08%	+4.27%	+4.54%	Hold
0-1%	11	+0.52%	+3.21%	+3.23%	+4.57%	Hold
-1-0%	8	-0.44%	-1.39%	-0.31%	-0.31%	Neg
-3-1%	19	-1.9%	-1.76%	-1.42%	-1.2%	Neg
-5-3%	10	-3.86%	-3.84%	-3.14%	-2.39%	Neg
-7-5%	11	-5.76%	-4.16%	-4.16%	-2.7%	Neg
-10-7%	5	-8.11%	-8.5%	-8.5%	-4.78%	Neg
<-10%	3	-11.74%	-11.74%	-11.74%	-3.68%	Neg

Exit Rules: Stoploss: -10% | Close if below 0% after 10 days

Signal data as of October 7, 2026

HIGH ALERT ● Neutral Strength: 20.5

Options Metrics

IV-Rank (52w)

12%

Bottom 20% of the past 52 weeks – options are historically cheap. Conditions favor premium buyers (Long Call, Long Put).

Call / Put Flow

70% / 30%

More than 60% of options premium is flowing into calls. This indicates net bullish positioning by market participants.

GEX (Mio.)

-26,014,576.2

Negative GEX: market makers are short gamma. They sell dips and buy rallies, which amplifies moves and increases volatility.

GEX Flip Strike

$825.00 · 1.4%

GEX flip strike is very close to spot price. Crossing this level can trigger a regime change – from suppressed to amplified volatility.

Max Pain

$830.00 · 2%

Max Pain is the price at which the most options contracts expire worthless. As expiration approaches, price often gravitates toward this level due to dealer hedging flows.

Spot Price

$813.83

Last traded price at signal calculation time

Gamma Exposure Timeline

Key GEX levels, Max Pain, and unusual activity across weekly and monthly expirations, plotted around the current spot price.

CAT GEX timeline showing put/call gamma pins, max pain and flip strike

Key GEX levels, Max Pain, Anchor, Ceiling and unusual activity across 14-30 DTE, plotted around the current spot price.

Put and call pins mark strikes where dealer gamma exposure concentrates. The GEX flip strike is where dealer hedging shifts from stabilizing (positive gamma) to amplifying (negative gamma) price moves. Max Pain is the strike where the most options expire worthless. Dashed markers flag unusual options activity. Learn how to use these signals in our options strategy guides →

Strategy Setups – You Decide

Based on current options data, 2 setups match the current conditions. Each strategy has different risk/reward characteristics – the final decision is always yours.

Setup 1 of 2 Long Call Full guide →

Why this fits today

IV-Rank at 12% – options are historically cheap. Bullish flow (70% calls) supports buying upside premium at below-average cost.

Advantages

✓ Unlimited upside potential with maximum loss capped at the premium paid

✓ Low IV-Rank means you are buying at historically cheap levels

✓ Benefits from both a price increase and a subsequent rise in implied volatility

Risks

✕ Time decay (theta) works against the position every day

✕ Requires a meaningful move to overcome the premium paid

✕ Full premium is lost if the stock stays below the strike at expiration

▶ FAQ: Long Call

What is a Long Call?

A Long Call gives the buyer the right to purchase the underlying at the strike price before expiration. The maximum loss is limited to the premium paid. It expresses a bullish directional view and profits if the underlying rises significantly above the strike price.

Why buy calls when IV-Rank is low?

Low IV-Rank means implied volatility is historically cheap - options are priced below their typical levels. Buying premium when it is cheap reduces the hurdle rate for profitability. If IV subsequently rises, the option gains value from both the price move and the increase in implied volatility.

What is the breakeven on a Long Call?

The breakeven equals the strike price plus the premium paid. For example, a call with a $100 strike bought for $3 breaks even at $103. Above that level, the position profits dollar-for-dollar with the stock. Below the strike at expiration, the full premium is lost.

Setup 2 of 2 Long Straddle Full guide →

Why this fits today

IV-Rank at 12% – buying both sides is cost-effective. A subsequent vol expansion or large move benefits both legs simultaneously.

Advantages

✓ Profits from any large directional move without needing to pick a side

✓ Buying when IV is historically cheap reduces the breakeven hurdle

✓ An unexpected vol expansion benefits both the call and put simultaneously

Risks

✕ Requires a significant move to recover the combined premium paid

✕ Theta decay accelerates as expiration approaches

✕ If the stock stays flat, both legs expire worthless

▶ FAQ: Long Straddle

What is a Long Straddle?

A Long Straddle buys a call and a put at the same strike and expiration. It profits from a large move in either direction. When IV is low, the premium cost is reduced, making the breakeven easier to reach on a directional move.

Why buy a straddle when IV is low?

Low IV means you are buying the options cheaply. If IV subsequently rises - due to an event or a directional move - both legs can gain value simultaneously, giving you a double benefit. The key is entering before the vol expansion.

All setups above are personal trade journal observations derived from options flow data. This is not financial advice. The decision to trade, and which strategy to use, is entirely yours.

View full options flow data and historical signals on the Options Flow Analysis Overview →

Valuation

Metric	Value
Market Cap	$360.39 B
PE Ratio (TTM)	33.72
Forward PE	24.21
PEG Ratio	1.43
EV/EBITDA	24.59
Price/Sales	4.82
Price/Book	18.58
Beta	1.59

Profitability

Metric	Value
Gross Margin	29.71%
Operating Margin	22.18%
Net Margin	14.51%
ROE	56.97%
ROA	9.03%

Dividends

Metric	Value
Annual Dividend	$6.52
Forward Yield	80.00%
Payout Ratio	26.01%
Dividend Date	2026-08-18

Analyst Consensus (26 Analysts)

Metric	Value
Median Target	$980.5
High Target	$1225
Low Target	$575

About Caterpillar Inc.

Caterpillar Inc. provides construction and mining equipment, off-highway diesel and natural gas engines, industrial gas turbines, and diesel-electric locomotives in the United States and internationally. The Construction Industries segment offers asphalt pavers, cold planers, compactors, forestry machines, material handlers, motor graders, pipelayers, road reclaimers, telehandlers, track-type tractors, and track and wheel excavators; backhoe, compact track, skid steer, track-type, and wheel loaders; and related parts and work tools. Its Resource Industries segment provides electric rope and hydraulic shovels, draglines, rotary drills, hard rock vehicles, mining trucks, wheel loaders, off-highway and articulated trucks, wide-body trucks, wheel tractor scrapers and dozers, and landfill and soil compactors; machinery components, and wear and maintenance components; and technology products and services for fleet management, equipment management analytics, autonomous machine capabilities, safety services, and mining performance solutions. The Energy & Transportation segment offers reciprocating engine powered generator sets; reciprocating engines, drivetrain, and integrated systems and solutions; centrifugal gas compressors and related services; and diesel-electric locomotive components, and other rail-related products. Its Financial Products segment provides operating and finance leases, revolving charge accounts, installment sale contracts, repair/rebuild financing, working capital loans, and wholesale financing; and insurance and risk management products and services. The All Other segment offers parts distribution; logistics and distribution services; electronics and control systems; dealer portfolio management; brand management and marketing strategy; and digital investment services. It also provides mining software solutions. The company was formerly known as Caterpillar Tractor Co. Caterpillar Inc. was incorporated in 1925 and is headquartered in Irving, Texas.

ETF Holdings

Caterpillar Inc. is included in 4 ETFs tracked by StockBotty.

ETF	Weight
DIA	9.55%
XLI	6.43%
IFRA	0.64%
SPY	0.59%

Frequently Asked Questions – Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)

Disclaimer: All trade history on this page reflects the author's personal trading activity only. This is not financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. See our full Disclaimer.